Q: How high would you be willing to take Bijan Robinson in redraft?
I think third overall behind CMC and Justin Jefferson, because that’s the type of ceiling he has even in his rookie year. It’s not like he was drafted by a team that’s going to have a bad offense – the Falcons offensive line was recently ranked 7th best in the NFL by PFF, and 4th best in the league by RotoWire.
We also know that the Falcons are going to continue to run the ball at one of the highest rates in the NFL – Arthur Smith called the most run plays of any team in the NFL last year, and even if that number comes down a bit if Desmond Ridder improves as the season goes on, it’s basically a lock that they’ll be inside the top 10.
So then the question becomes, does Tyler Allgeier worry me at all as far as cutting into Bijan’s workload goes? The answer for me is no – The Falcons averaged just under 33 run plays per game last year, so that leaves room for Bijan to hover around 20 attempts per game. That’s plenty enough with his talent to finish as the overall RB1, and Allgeier can sit at eight carries a game while whoever else they want rotates in to handle the other five or six. Robinson is also a good pass catcher, and even if he sees only two or three targets a game, he can be efficient enough with them to make the receiving work the icing on the cake.
So what’s not to like about Bijan? I’m surprised he’s still going after Austin Ekeler, and since I’m willing to take Bijan at third overall, his price in the late first round is fantastic to me.
Q: Which player is most likely to have fantasy value this season: Zeke, Kareem Hunt, or Leonard Fournette?
Two of these guys would be playing very similar early down/goal line roles –Zeke and Fournette – while Kareem Hunt is the running back that offers the most in the way of running and catching. This is truly a speculation question because none of these guys are on a team yet, but I have the best feeling that Elliott can go and play the early down role on another offense better than Fournette can and well enough to top any value Hunt would have in the receiving game.
All three of these guys were abysmal in terms of efficiency (none of them eclipsed 3.8 YPC in 2022), but Zeke was way ahead of both Fournette and Hunt in production (12 touchdowns to 3 apiece) and missed tackles forced (30 in 15 games played, 22 for Hunt and 15 for Fournette). It might be the Cowboys fan in me talking, but I think Zeke has more left in the tank than the other two guys.
And if we’re splitting hairs, let’s also throw in the fact that Zeke played through injury each of the last two seasons with PCL and MCL tears. Fournette was also losing playing time to an inefficient rookie RB in Rachaad White last season, and if I had to guess who signed to a team first, I’d say it’s Zeke.