BUY RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
Among RBs with 5+ carries: 1st in MTF/ATT, 3rd in YCO/ATT
Gibbs and Montgomery really go hand in hand as buys and sells. Montgomery got the majority of the work on the ground, and that was problematic in Week 1 – but do we really think this is going to be the split the rest of the way when Gibbs looked as good as he did last Thursday?
I didn’t think that people would be quick to give up on Gibbs after one game, but some of the trade questions I’ve heard and I know you’ve heard over the past week have been really surprising. If the guy that has Gibbs in your league is panicking, go get Gibbs pronto. It’s not just the eye test that Gibbs passes - he forced missed tackles at the highest rate in the NFL in Week 1. Obviously, it was a very light workload, but it was every time he touched the ball that he was making dudes just look silly.
The Lions love him, and they said his workload was intentionally low in Week 1. The sooner they ramp up his touches, the better, but you have to imagine that he’ll be fully involved by Week 4 at the latest, right?
BUY TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF
The Bills had a really hard time last night against your Jets, but nobody would have been surprised if you told them that would happen even before the game. The Jets have had the Bills number for a while, and the Aaron Rodgers drama hung incredibly heavy over the night - which actually allowed one Dalton Kincaid’s performance to slip through the cracks a bit last night.
He was heavily utilized: the Bills ran tons of 12 personnel, and he saw 55 snaps on the night to go along with four targets. But Josh Allen was just uncharacteristically bad. Besides the obvious turnover issues, it was a triple feature of him holding onto the ball too long, getting harassed by the Jets defensive line, and taking ill-advised rushing attempts. Allen will bounce back, and so will the Bills offense, and that has me excited for what Kincaid can be.
It was a quiet box score finish for him, but there’s no No. 2 in Buffalo right now. Dawson Knox has been around and Gabe Davis still isn’t reliable enough to qualify as one, so that leaves Kincaid as the lone contender for that role - and his usage in the first game suggests that he could grow into that kind of role sooner rather than later.
SELL RB Raheem Mostert, MIA
Tua threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns in an offensive shootout with the Chargers that saw Miami lean beyond heavily on the passing game – and that formula worked for them. And by some miracle, Raheem Mostert managed to put up 13 PPR points and score a touchdown for good measure!
That pushed him into sell-high territory in my book, primarily because you’re just not going to be able to realistically flip him for a solid RB2 a few weeks from now when Jeff Wilson is back and potentially even Devon Achane. That’s not to say that you’re going to be able to pull off some miraculous 1:1 trade with Mostert, but package up Mostert and a guy like Nico Collins and start firing out offers to whoever lost J.K. Dobbins in Week 1 and pick up a guy like Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, or even an Amari Cooper depending on the guy you’re trading with.
These are aiming high, obviously, but Mostert isn’t going to be anything besides a throw in by midseason and you can take advantage of the early season panic.