I usually don’t like to buy RBs this time of year because a lot can happen between now and the beginning of the season - not so much injuries, but moreso RBs can be added to backfields, there can be surprise cuts and new additions to teams that create muddy backfields - but I don’t think this backfield qualifies for one of those situations. I don’t see a RB being added to the Saints backfield, so I’m looking to get Kendre Miller on any dynasty team I don’t currently have him on.
First of all, I was banging the table for Kendre Miller last year. That didn’t work out. I was wrong… he didn’t make an impact during his rookie year (I was right about Jamaal Williams though). Why didn’t it work out for Kendre?
It didn’t help that he sprained his knee in preseason, which is the same knee he injured his MCL and meniscus in. That injury prevented him from being able to participate in the NFL Combine. The Saints rushed him back after a couple of weeks, and then he pulled his hamstring right away right before the season began. He then had to deal with hamstring injuries and ankle injuries the entire season until he finally got some opportunity with Alvin Kamara missing time in Week 18… and he looked pretty good. He was PFF’s 4th highest graded RB that week, he had the 8th highest yards after contact/att, and the 2nd highest missed tackle rate. That’s the last we saw of him before the Saints season ended.
He was a very good prospect, he would’ve been up there with Jonathon Brooks for me if he came out this year, he has a three down skillset, he has the size, but will he have the opportunity? That brings me to Alvin Kamara.
The Saints picked Kendre Miller for a reason. Alvin Kamara was amazing for fantasy least year. But it was a MIRAGE. 32% of his fantasy points came from receptions alone (in other words, he was getting straight uo peppered). That was by far the highest percentage of fantasy points coming from receptions alone - this is not counting receiving yards. Don’t get me wrong - he’s still good in the receiving game, but is he going to be the guy on early downs this year, or will Miller start to get worked in?
Kamara is going to be 29 years old in July, and he was one of the least efficient runners in the NFL last year. Among RBs with 100 ore more carries last year, he was bottom-7 in missed tackles forced/att and yards after contact/att. In his limited opportunities last year, he was 11th and 20th in those categories among the 78 qualifying RBs last year.
Kendre Miller isn’t even 22 years old yet, and he was in the 92nd and 95th percentile in those categories among college RBs over the last 10 seasons. We could see a 1-2 punch in this backfield with Kamara maintaining his pass catching duties, and I want to buy before we hear any hype of out training camp, get any hype from preseason, and before he gets that opportunity to show that he’s a legitimately good RB. He’s still affordable, the cat isn’t out of the bag yet.