Jahmyr Gibbs will likely finish as a fantasy RB1 as a rookie. David Montgomery will likely handle a big portion, and maybe majority, of the RB carries in Detroit - but it might not matter. A running back with Gibbs’ receiving profile can overcome that challenge. Just ask Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey!
Kamara and CMC were both second options in the ground game, and both had 120 rushing attempts or less with no goal-line role. So what made them special?
Both of them had 80+ catches in their rookie season. Kamara finished as the overall RB4 and CMC as the RB11 in PPR fantasy points/game. But why compare Gibbs to these guys?
Gibbs is right there with those two in their college receiving efficiency. Gibbs has two top-10 yards/route run seasons among hundreds of qualifying FBS RBs since 2014. And what’s more: the role for Gibbs in the Lions’ offense is clear as day.
D’Andre Swift was targeted on 27% of his routes run last year, and Detroit replaced him with Gibbs. For context, Austin Ekeler was at 28%. (By the way, Swift was an RB1 in 2021 in PPR FPPG in that role). The draft capital is there, too.
There have been 5 RBs selected in the Top-12 of the NFL Draft over the last 10 seasons, and all of them finished as an RB1 in PPR points/game in their rookie season.
When you combine Gibbs’ receiving profile, his explosiveness, his athletic profile, and an existing role, it’s very possible Gibbs is being drafted near his floor as the RB14 off the board. He’s going off the board in the 4th round on Underdog - take advantage of the value.