Jayden Daniels can finish as a Top-5 fantasy QB as a rookie, and this is how it would happen.
Kliff Kingsbury has experience drafting a mobile quarterback and finding success with him in Year 1; look no further than in 2019 when he was HC for the Cardinals and broke in a rookie Kyler Murray. That year, Murray finished as the overall fantasy QB12 (18.8 fantasy points per game) with 3722 passing yards, 544 rushing yards, and 5.8 rush attempts per game. Very good.
But Daniels might have even more upside because of his 14.1% scramble rate in college, which was third highest in CFB since 2019. For reference, Lamar Jackson had the highest rate in the NFL last year at 11%.
Not only that, but Daniels’ 17% designed rushing rate can carry over. All three NFL QBs with that mark or higher were Top-12 QBs last year. Even if the passing production isn’t there, he can still succeed… since 2000, there were 24 QBs who threw for less than 3500 yards but had more than 80 rushing attempts. 20 of them averaged more than 20 FPPG (which correlates to Top-8 finish), and 11 of those 20 averaged more than 22 FPPG (which correlates to Top-5 finish).
My point? All Daniels needs to do is average about 205 passing yards and 4.7 rush attempts/game. And frankly, that shouldn’t be an issue; Kyler Murray averaged 5.8 rushing yards/game in his rookie year. But it also comes down to Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. In his four years with Murray, Kingsbury’s offenses ranked 1st in offensive plays/game (Washington was bottom-12 last year) and 6th in early down neutral pass rate. That means more scrambling opportunities for Daniels, more passing opportunities, more plays, more rushing attempts, and of course: more fantasy points.
Can we see a rookie year similar to RGIII’s when he passed for 3200 yards and ran for 815 yards for Washington in his rookie season? He averaged 21.17 FPPG, which correlates to a high-end fantasy QB1.
History tells us that Daniels has a pretty safe floor if he stays healthy (Top-12) and has the upside to finish Top-5 like the 45% of QBs since 2000 did with similar but conservative projections for him.