I think many are projecting a big breakout year for George Pickens this season because Diontae Johnson is gone - and I think there is definitely merit to that statement. Diontae was a true target earner - an elite separator, etc. You know my love for Diontae at this point - and in 4 games without Diontae in his career (all last year), Pickens averaged 8.3 targets, 89.3 receiving yards, and 16.6 fantasy points/game. That fantasy points/game number is the mark of a Top-12 WR.
One thing to keep in mind is that it was a sample of only 4 games, and he averaged only 4.3 receptions during those games. I think a breakout is 100% a potential outcome this year - his first two years cumulatively have been great. 800 and 1140 yards the last two seasons… but only 52 catches and 63 catches in each of those two seasons, though. 2.25 yards/route run was awesome - 16th among all WRs with 100+ targets last year. But his 1st downs/route run? 6th worst last year. He was a big play guy - and it’s very possible he remains a big play guy. Can a big play guy have a big year? Can they break out? Yes, of course. Especially with a QB upgrade, who specifically does well throwing down field. Russell Wilson was 8th in deep passer rating among qualifying QBs, Kenny Pickett ranked 33rd of the 38 QBs who qualified.
But another thing about Russell Wilson, among qualifying QBs, he was dead last in percentage of his throws targeting his first read last year. Pickens should be the first read on most plays, but the whole point is that we want him to get the target volume. And by the way, I didn’t even mention Arthur Smith. Drake London had a 22% target share last year - and now we’re drafting him as a low-end WR1. What will Pickens’ target share actually look like? Courtland Sutton had a 19% target share last year - he probably would’ve had an even higher target share if Russ actually threw to his first read at an average rate.
While I don’t know if Pickens is a high-volume true WR1 in the NFL - I would lean towards no on that – I do think he can mesh well with Russell Wilson if all goes well, and he can break out in that scenario. But I think we might have to temper some expectations if we’re expecting this 1400-yard season from him and if we’re putting him in the same sentence as WRs like Drake London, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson – guys who have underperformed but who we also know are a good QB and system away from being truly elite in way more fashions than just making plays downfield.
I’ve seen people put him in that category, though – like he could get there, but I’m not sure I see that personally. Is a 1200-yard season with 8-10 TDs possible for Pickens this year? Yes. But I think he might be in line for more of the same of what we’ve seen already, but maybe more TDs this time around - closer to 8 or 9 than the 4 or 5 we’ve seen the last two years. That could turn out to be pretty damn good; 900-1000 yards and 8 or 9 TDs, I’ll take it… but it might be a bumpier ride that you think getting there.