2023 was once again textbook Terry McLaurin, with the Commanders’ veteran pass catcher rewinding what has essentially been the same fantasy season for the fourth time over since 2020. McLaurin’s 132-79-1002-4 line in 2023 was comically close to his four-year average production of 129-80-1091-4.5 since 2020 – relatively impressive numbers for a wide receiver to consistently post given backup quarterback play at best over the length of that span. However, much like Garrett Wilson in 2023, McLaurin was getting his cardio in for most of the season, posting a desaturated 1.64 yards per route run (50th among qualifying receivers) while running the second-most routes in the NFL (Jahan Dotson was right behind him at third).
With Eric Bienemy out the door and Sam Howell traded after just two seasons with the team, McLaurin’s total routes run are likely to regress more towards the mean in 2024 – especially with new OC Kliff Kingsbury and a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels commanding the offense. Bienemy’s 2023 offense passed the ball at nearly a 70% clip despite Howell ranking outside PFF’s top 50 quarterbacks in passing grade. Kingsbury has historically called an air raid offense, but play calling was relatively balanced in his four years with Kyler Murray in Arizona. However, the hope is that whatever opportunity McLaurin loses in terms of target quantity will be made up for with an increase in target quality.
It’ll take Daniels being the first Washington quarterback to pan out since RGIII, but if the Heisman-winning quarterback can mesh well with McLaurin (and there’s a good chance of that), McLaurin could finally break through the ceiling capping his fantasy production. We do hope for this every year with McLaurin, but Daniels was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback on deep passes last season (22:0 TD:INT ratio on such passes), while McLaurin profiles as one of the NFL’s premier deep threats according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception.