Davante Adams has demonstrated that he is essentially a QB-proof fantasy option at WR, finishing as the PPR WR3 in 2022 with Derek Carr at QB after back-to-back Top-2 finishes in 2021 and 2020 with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Adams will once again be an excellent fantasy receiver in 2023 - but could there be reason for concern about his true ceiling?
Among wide receivers with at least 100 receptions in 2022, Davante Adams posted the 2nd-lowest catch rate in the NFL (59.5%). He relied on deep targets to produce more than any other WR in the NFL, scoring a league-leading 125 points on passes that travel 20+ yards in the air. That’s all fine and dandy until you consider the switch at QB that he’ll have to navigate in 2023.
His former QB in 2022, Derek Carr, threw the ball deep at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL (13.7% of passes traveled 20+ yards in the air), while also ranking fourth in total deep passes among all QBs with 69. His new QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, had the 4th-lowest deep ball % in the NFL last year (8.8%), while simultaneously throwing the third-fewest total deep passes (27).
We know Davante Adams is an elite talent, but the script could be completely different for him in 2023. That raises a level of uncertainty that warrants him potentially falling out of the “sure thing” category among fantasy WRs – and could potentially limit his fantasy ceiling this year.