Davante Adams’ second year with the Raiders provided further evidence (not that it was necessary) that he is officially a QB-proof fantasy wide receiver, even at the ripe age of 31. After finishing as the overall WR3 in PPR formats moving from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr at QB in 2022, Adams followed that up with an overall WR10 finish in 2023 while moving from his old college teammate in Carr to the platoon of a washed-up Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Aidan O’Connell.
Even with WR Jakobi Meyers providing quality target competition (20% target share), Adams exerted total domination of the team’s opportunity share: his target share (30.5%), air yards share (44.1%), and targets per route run (0.31) all ranked top-3 among receivers to run at least 100 routes. He logged seven games last season with 12 or more targets, including two monster 20+ target, 13-reception performances with two different quarterbacks – finishing as a top-2 WR in both instances. Heading into 2024, the Raiders brought in veteran QB Gardner Minshew to provide some competition at quarterback after missing out on drafting one in April’s draft.
As uninspiring as the Raiders QB situation may seem from a real life perspective, it’s not the worst situation for Adams; he’ll be catching passes either from O’Connell, a quarterback with whom he demonstrated a solid connection (16.3 PPR points per game in his nine starts with an elite 35% target share, WR11 on a brutal 67% catchable target rate), or Gardner Minshew, who supported Michael Pittman at a WR1 level in his time under center last season (Pittman averaged 16.6 PPR points per game in 12 games with Minshew under center, WR9 on a decent 79% catchable target rate). Adams’ per route efficiency has dropped in each of the past two seasons, with his 2.11 YPRR in 2023 ranking 27th among 145 receivers to run 100 routes –however, that can be attributed more to him playing in increasingly ineffective offenses with a descending quality of QB play than to any type of falloff due to age.
The addition of Brock Bowers to the offense could usurp some volume from the perennial fantasy WR1, but even a drop into the 130-140 target range for Adams shouldn’t keep him out of the WR1 conversation – especially if the Raiders offense can take a step forward in 2024 after ranking 25th in total touchdowns scored in 2023. It’s worth noting that new Raiders OC and former Bears OC Luke Getsy allowed D.J. Moore to be a target funnel last year in Chicago – Moore’s 29% target share ranked 7th among all WRs on an offense quarterbacked by the erratic Justin Fields.
Comments