Wilson’s 1.28 yards per route run is currently his lowest mark of his career, but it’s only been four games. Rodgers is looking for Wilson at a rate that is high enough to support WR1 numbers (26% target share) and the Jets are dropping back to pass at a slightly higher rate than expected (+2% dropback rate over expectation per FantasyLife’s utilization report), so there’s enough available opportunity in this system to sustain Wilson as a WR1… but until we see Wilson marry that utilization with some efficiency on a per route basis, and hopefully see things get rolling in the touchdown department, Wilson looks more like a solid WR2.
The biggest problem has been Allen Lazard, who wouldn’t be a problem on 31 of the 32 NFL offenses. The Jets just happen to have Aaron Rodgers at QB, though, so Lazard has been able to drain a 17% target share from the offense. Lazard has also overperformed based on fantasy points over expectation – he’s averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game despite his expected total based on his utilization being 10.5. And of course, Garrett Wilson is underperforming based on his utilization – his 11.2 actual points per game are well short of his 14.3 expected points per game.
We didn’t think there would be a clear No. 2 in this offense coming into the season, and Mike Williams has always been a complement to a true No. 1 throughout his career. But with Lazard being a surprise addition to pass catchers we need to consider, Wilson hasn’t been the funnel for targets like we expected him to be. And to be honest, I don’t know if Lazard is going away – he’s been above 85% route participation in three of four games this season, and over 75% in all four. If he sticks around, then Wilson isn’t going to be a fantasy WR1 the rest of the way.