Buy WR Nico Collins, HOU
The ineligible man downfield penalty felt around the fantasy football world instantly threw a wet towel on Nico Collins’ return to action, and he never got going the rest of the night. He tied Tank Dell as Houston’s leading receiver, with both pass catchers reeling in four of seven targets for 54 yards. His 9.4 fantasy points were his fewest in a game where he was healthy since Week 8 of last season.
Collins operated as an elite WR1 and C.J. Stroud’s go-to target over the first four weeks of the season, posting a 29% target share, 27% target rate, and 22.7 PPR points per game. One game shouldn’t be enough to frustrate fantasy managers, but failing to come through in a favorable matchup after missing the past five games certainly won’t endear him more to fantasy managers who have struggled without him.
C.J. Stroud has also played notably worse without Collins in the lineup, and that continued against the Cowboys’ squishy defense. Through the first four games, C.J. Stroud had the 10th-highest PFF Passing grade (74.0) out of 29 qualifying QBs, a number that has dipped five points to 69.0 since then (ranking 20th out of 27 QBs).
There’s a much larger sample of both Nico Collins producing as a high-end WR1 and C.J. Stroud playing better than he currently is that we can expect both to pick it up down the stretch this season. Matchups against the Jaguars in Week 13 and the Ravens in the fantasy championship certainly don’t hurt their cases, either.
Sell RB Austin Ekeler, WAS
Austin Ekeler has scored at least 17 PPR points in each of his past three games, relying on the absence of Brian Robinson in the Commanders’ backfield to post his three best outings of the season.
Ekeler has failed to notch double-digit carries in every game where Robinson has been active and healthy. In two games without Robinson in Weeks 9 and 10, Robinson only earned 11 and 13 carries, respectively, on top of his usual role in the receiving game. He had two carries last week with Robinson back in the lineup, but was able to come through with eight catches on nine targets for 72 yards – all of which led the team.
Realistically, Ekeler won’t be leading the Commanders pass catchers in receptions and receiving yards on a weekly basis. Likewise, his role in the running game is limited significantly by the presence of Robinson. In seven starts before the last three games, Ekeler finished as a top-20 option at the position just once and scored one touchdown total.
Ekeler has looked the part of a solid RB2 over the past three games, but he’s relied heavily on touchdowns and unsustainable volume in the receiving game to get it done. With his bye still looming in Week 14, it’s time to move Ekeler while his value is high.
Buy WR A.J. Brown, PHI
Since returning from his injury earlier this season, A.J. Brown has dominated the target share on the Eagles offense. His 32% target share leads all receivers since Week 6, but his 15 PPR points per game in that same span places him as just the WR23. He’s finished outside the top-12 in four straight games after ripping off three top-7 finishes in his first three games played this season.
That’s thanks to Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley combining to score 11 of the Eagles’ 15 offensive touchdowns over the past four games. The production has been centralized in the backfield as of late with the Eagles winning their past four games by a comfortable margin, but more competitive games against the Rams and Ravens in the next two weeks could force Philly to lean more on the passing game.
A.J. Brown (3.24) ranks second in the NFL behind only Nico Collins (3.39) in yards per route run this season. He’s displayed overall WR1 upside in the past and the Eagles offense is too good to expect this trend of quiet finishes to continue. Take advantage of the past four down games and add a fantasy WR1 to your team before the trade deadline.