After a hectic hiring process that saw him reject the Jaguars head coaching job, sign an extension with the Buccaneers, and ultimately flip back again to the Jaguars job, Liam Coen is set to take the Jacksonville offense to new heights in his first season with the team. Here are three reasons why Liam Coen is primed to take your Jaguars players to the next level in 2025.
Liam Coen’s offense was on fire everywhere in 2024.
Essentially everywhere you looked, the Buccaneers were among the best in the league in offensive efficiency. Whether it was red zone scoring attempts (5th), red zone touchdowns (4th), overall touchdowns (4th), red zone success rate (4th), EPA/play in the red zone (5th) and out of it (4th), overall EPA per play (5th), EPA/play on pass plays (4th), or EPA/play on run plays (6th), you could count on Tampa Bay to be getting it done in those categories. Coen’s playcalling made this offense a juggernaut, and with more high-quality tools in Jacksonville, we can see more of that in 2025.
The slot role is a potential fantasy gold mine.
Liam Coen took over the Rams OC job after Kevin O’Connell left to Minnesota, and converted Chris Godwin back to the Cooper Kupp role last year on purpose: “That’s where I envision [Godwin] playing, more on the inside, that position that Cooper [Kupp] played.” Godwin was the WR6 through his six healthy weeks.
Christian Kirk was the Jags’ primary slot receiver last year before his collarbone (he’s healthy now), so he’s the guy to target outside of Brian Thomas Jr. There will be questions around whether the Jags keep him under contract, as a post-June 1st release can save them $16M. Next up can be Parker Washington, but there’s also a chance of even replacing Kirk with a familiar face in that role - Chris Godwin himself (free agent), or Cooper Kupp (trade block).
With that being said… I’m buying Christian Kirk in dynasty today. Christian Kirk’s former coach in Arizona Spencer Whipple was brought in by Coen to be QB coach, so there’s familiarity there that could be the difference between the Jags retaining Kirk and letting him go.
Coen did mention that he was impressed with BTJ’s ability in the slot right after his opening press conference, but you have to assume that he’ll keep BTJ on the outside for the most part give his ability to dominate downfield. But I’ll take some of BTJ in the slot - no WR with 40+ slot targets averaged more yards/route run than him out of the slot last year.
Trevor Lawrence has an opportunity to be this year’s fantasy QB steal
There could be a bigger emphasis on throwing the ball with Coen. The Bucs were 9th in pass rate over expectation last year, and the Jaguars defense will likely continue to keep the Jags outside of positive game scripts. The Bucs were also 5th among all teams in first half pass rate; the second half could be similar given the state of the Jags defense.
Outside of rushing QBs, pocket QBs who are in a Shanahan or McVay system are more likely to outperform their ADP than others. Think Darnold, Purdy, Stafford, Tua. Coen took Baker to an even higher level than Dave Canales did, so he might be able to do the same for another former #1 overall pick.
Lawrence hasn’t lived up to expectations, but hasn’t been terrible. There’s still intrigue, there’s still promise. He was 13th in adjusted EPA/play last year, so he’s not starting from the bottom. He loved throwing it deep, as well - he was 2nd in deep throw % last year, and was middle of the pack in big time throws %, per PFF.