Caleb Williams has landed in a serious situation - and for him, it’s great. He has three stud WRs to throw to, not to mention D’Andre Swift out of the backfield and some really good pass catching TEs as well in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. Former Seahawks OC Shane Waldron is now the Bears OC, and he had JSN as a rookie. Now he has Rome Odunze as a rookie… and some might look at that and say ‘ok, well if JSN had a relatively limited role Year 1, maybe we can expect the same for Rome.’ I don’t think that’s the case.
The first reason is that JSN is a slot receiver, so if you’re not in 3 WR sets, he’s off the field most of the time. The guy who I think is going to be off the field as the Bears slot receiver is Keenan Allen, not Rome Odunze. In 2 WR sets, I’m expecting it to be mainly DJ Moore and Rome Odunze on the field.
The second reason that I don’t look at it the same way is because Odunze is just a better prospect. He profiles more as that alpha WR - so this is not an apples to apples comparison between these two. The Bears offensive is expected to score points, and they’re expected to run at a decent pace. They’re also expected to throw the ball more than the league average especially on early downs - so there’s going to be a ton of fantasy points to go around. Let’s look at the prices…
DJ Moore’s the WR21, Keenan Allen’s the WR33, and Rome Odunze’s the WR38. I like DJ Moore as a player, but I don’t think it’s worth paying that price because there are too many scenarios where he doesn’t pay off at that price - or you should’ve waited to take one of the other two guys. The first scenario is that the targets are widely distributed and Moore will be very inconsistent because of it - and we also have to remember that this is still a rookie QB under center. Another scenario is that Rome Odunze can be that alpha right off the bat. We saw it with other baller WR prospects - and even with the target competition, I don’t think it’s too galaxy brained to say that Odunze can potentially lead this team in target share and fantasy points when it’s all said and done this year. I do think he competes for that title, even as a rookie WR - because he’s that good.
I’m okay avoiding this situation, but taking Rome WR38 seems like my play here - because a) I won’t get dinged too hard if he doesn’t pan out, b) he could just be a solid flex for me, which is fine at that price, or c) he becomes the alpha or close to it and I just got a serious value.