BUY RB Jerome Ford, CLE
Jerome Ford is a RB who I think is a little undervalued right now based on the role that he has. Obviously with the Deshaun Watson news he could be easier to buy, but I’m not overly worried about Watson not being behind center the rest of the way when it comes to Ford. Cleveland’s got a good defense that will allow this running game to rack up volume - their team identify is the run game anyway, and in the weeks without Watson, we’ve had several top 15 fantasy finishes out of this backfield.
Now, Ford hasn’t scored a TD since Week 7 and he’s been banged up… but the last 2 games, he’s taken the clear lead in snaps. He jumped from 44% and 31% snap share in Weeks 7 and 9 to 63% and 66% the last two weeks, and he’s averaging 22.5 opportunities over the last two. His route participation has also jumped to above 60% - targets will follow, and he had a 25% target share in Week 9. He’s the clear 2 minute and long down and distance back, but Kareem Hunt has been the clear goal line back for them lately.
Can that change? Maybe. But I’d move forward assuming he will not get that role - but you can rest easy knowing that those TDs will come based on the amount of overall opportunity he’s getting. They just might not be on the goal line.
I’m not sure the Browns will be game scripted out of many games moving forward, either… look at the schedule the next few weeks for them: Pittsburgh and Denver the next two weeks, then the Rams, then Jacksonville, Chicago, Houston, Jets - the game script will be there, and the volume will be there as a result. Things are lining up for Ford to have a great rest of season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a Top-15 back moving forward with a chance to crack the Top-12 RB if he does end up getting some of that goal line work.
BUY RB Breece Hall, NYJ
I think Michael Carter being released actually makes a significant positive impact for Breece Hall. Michael Carter was getting 72% of the long down and distance snaps, and 71% of the 2 minute snaps of the season - and now all of that work is going to Breece. Dalvin Cook has had 5% of the long down and distance snaps and 0% of the 2 minute snaps this year - you can be sure that that vacated work isn’t going to him.
Breece Hall’s floor and ceiling just got a lot higher for a team who will have to heavily depend on him - he’s had two down games, but he saw a season high in snap share in Week 10, and we’re about to see season highs in route participation this upcoming week.
The Jets also have neutral matchups all the way through the end of the year - except for Cleveland in Week 17. That’s in the championship week, which isn’t ideal, but the Browns have been a little susceptible to big plays, allowing the 2nd highest rate of 20+ yard rushing plays, and the 5th highest rate of 20+ yard receiving plays to RBs. That’s Breece’s game right there… as long as he’s healthy, I don’t see a world where he finishes outside the Top-12 the rest of the way between the schedule and the way the offense is going to be running.
SELL QB Josh Dobbs, MIN
If you need help at RB or WR and you’re holding Josh Dobbs along with another quality starting QB like Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts because you needed someone during his bye week, use this opportunity to move him after the three monster games he just had. Get a RB or WR back from the team that badly needs a QB.
I don’t want to sell my team short on upside by putting the cart before the horse when it comes to QB injuries - I want to play to win, and I want to bolster my starting lineup as much as possible going into this stretch. Even if I have someone like Kyler Murray who just came back, I am fine moving Dobbs if I can get a high-end RB2 or high-end WR2 - some teams are just desperate to solve their QB situation and you can do a 1 for 1 with Dobbs right now. Or you can add a WR with Dobbs to get a higher-end WR, and similarly with a RB if that’s what you need.
Otherwise, I’m perfectly fine starting Dobbs as a QB1 rest of season… but just wanted to point out the fact that a lot of people might have 2 very startable QBs on their roster, and one of them should be moved so that they can improve the rest of their starting lineup.
Comments