Start With Confidence: WR Drake London vs TB
London posted his best fantasy performance of the season three weeks ago against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football, catching 12 of his 13 targets for 154 yards and a touchdown (33.4 PPR Points).
Since a quiet week against the Steelers, London has averaged a 27% target rate, 29% target share, and 20 PPR points per game. He’s scored in five of his last six games and has ranked as a top-20 receiver in those same five games out of his last six, as well.
London has caught exactly six passes in each of his last six games, and he’ll have a good chance of extending that streak to seven games with the Buccaneers allowing the 4th-most receptions to WRs per game this season.
Tampa Bay is also allowing the 6th-most receiving yards and the 5th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season overall, and the most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers over the last four weeks. London runs a majority of his routes from the perimeter.
Not that I have to tell you, but London should be locked into lineups as a high-end fantasy WR1 this week.
Bench: WR Diontae Johnson vs DEN
Between dealing with a handful of injuries, the return of Bryce Young under center this week, and a very difficult matchup against Denver that could feature shadow coverage from CB Patrick Surtain, Diontae Johnson should be held out of starting lineups this week.
Johnson’s 28% target share and target rate with Andy Dalton since Week 3 has propelled him to three top-15 finishes in the past five games. Given this elite target-earning ability, he would normally be ranked as a solid WR2 play at worst, even in matchups against strong defenses like Denver.
However, Andy Dalton has been ruled out with a thumb injury after being involved in a car accident this week. That means it’ll be Bryce Young once again under center, a QB with whom Johnson averaged 4.2 PPR points and 6 targets per game in Weeks 1 and 2.
The Broncos are a bottom-5 matchup for fantasy wide receivers in receiving yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game allowed. Miraculously, the Panthers aren’t projected to have the lowest implied points of the week but are still the second-lowest at just 17.5.
The falloff will be steep for Johnson as long as Bryce Young is taking snaps. He’ll be difficult to trust even as a flex play for the duration of Young’s stint as Carolina’s starter moving forward.