Buy WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
In a game where the Lions scored 52 points, you wouldn’t expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to finish as the WR51 on the week with just two catches on two targets – but that’s exactly what happened in Detroit’s all-around demolition of the Titans in Week 8. Despite the limited opportunity, St. Brown still found the end zone for fantasy managers but posted just seven receiving yards.
The good news: this won’t be the norm moving forward. As a player, Amon-Ra St. Brown is an elite target earner; he’s earning a 28% target share and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. Both of those numbers are top-5 among 47 WRs to run 200 or more routes. He’s also scored in each of his last five games.
Consider also the games where St. Brown has underperformed. Two of his three lowest-performing games have come in absolute blowouts of the Cowboys and Titans, and his lowest output occurred in Week 1. The Lions should have more competitive games coming up (GB & HOU), followed by a fantastic matchup against the Jaguars three weeks from now. The Lions will need him more moving forward than they have in recent weeks.
Take advantage of any fantasy managers panicking that there are too many mouths to feed in Detroit. Amon-Ra is still the top dog and is still a top-6 fantasy WR moving forward.
Sell QB Kirk Cousins, ATL
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Kirk Cousins’ numbers are being severely inflated by two massive performances against the Buccaneers. In the first game, he relied on volume that he probably won’t see again this season and possibly his career (58 pass attempts), and in the second game this past week he was super efficient (4 TDs on 23 completions).
He’s averaging 32 fantasy points per game against the Buccaneers (who are statistically the best matchup in fantasy right now for QBs) and just 11 points per game in six other games this year. He’s had three top-8 finishes this season, but ranks outside the top-20 in five other games – and eight of his 14 touchdowns on the season have come in those games against Tampa Bay.
I called it the last time Kirk had the blowup game against the Buccaneers, and I’m doing it again – they have a decent matchup this week against the Cowboys, but after that, they have New Orleans, Denver, the bye in Week 12, and the Chargers. Not necessarily a bed of roses, and you can probably sell to someone with an underperforming QB like Dak Prescott or a banged-up starter like Jordan Love.