Buy RB Breece Hall - NYJ
Breece Hall has seen his production completely fall off the cliff in over the past two weeks, totaling just 55 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns on 28 opportunities.
The game scripts in those games have been outlandish, to say the least. The Broncos game was played in the heavy rain and featured just 434 total yards of offense and 19 combined points between the two teams. The game last week in London saw the Jets fall behind by three scores in the first half and resort to dropping Aaron Rodgers back 54 times to pass.
Prior to those two games, Hall had seen either 21 or 22 total opportunities in three straight games. His 68% rush attempts share and 21% target share earned him a near-perfect 9.5 out of 10 utilization grade per Fantasy Life’s utilization report. In games he isn’t effectively scripted out of, Hall has averaged 21.0 PPR points per game.
Hall’s efficiency has come down this season compared to the rest of his career, however. His cumulative 3.0 yards per carry this season pales in comparison to his career 4.8 yards per carry. However, given a much larger sample size of efficiency, we can expect that number to normalize after two very difficult matchups against the 1st and 4th ranked teams in defensive DVOA (Minnesota and Denver, respectively).
Hall faces a Bills team in Week 6 that’s currently allowing the most receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns to the RB position through five weeks. Better days are ahead, and fantasy managers can take advantage of those panicking about Braelon Allen playing Bucky Irving to Breece Hall’s Rachaad White.
Sell QB Kirk Cousins - ATL
Kirk Cousins is coming off his second-best fantasy performance of his career in Week 5 against the Buccaneers, a game in which he threw for 509 yards and 4 touchdowns. His 58 attempts set a career-high, and his 42 completions were two times as many as he’s had in a single game up to this point. Needless to say, the Falcons don’t want to be throwing the ball at this high a rate the rest of the season, and it’s unlikely that they do.
It’ll take extreme efficiency like Cousins showed in Week 5 for him to consistently vie for top-5/10 fantasy finishes. While the Falcons offense is showing signs of improving, Cousins is more likely to have an efficient outing than put the entire offense on his back.
There’s a good chance you either drafted Kirk Cousins as your QB2 or he’s taking up a bench spot in your 1QB league – he came off the board as the QB19 in drafts this summer. Use the matchup against the Panthers next week as a selling point (6th most fantasy points allowed to QBs this year) and potentially upgrade to another high-upside starter.