One Target: WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans
There’s a lot of ambiguity in the Texans WR room - a lot of people are excited about John Metchie, and are assuming that Metchie becomes the eventual WR1 here, even this year. And I love the fact that he was cleared after being diagnosed with a form of leukemia, after the ACL tear. It just hasn’t been the best time for him, so I’m rooting for him… but if I’m picking a WR to be the guy this year, it’s Nico Collins, not John Metchie, and certainly not Robert Woods, Tank Dell, or Xavier Hutchinson.
Metchie wasn’t the best prospect coming out on top of the ACL injury, and he’s probably going to be a slot WR at best - he’s had some big plays in college, but was a late breakout.
Nico Collins has showed some flashes, and he showed some targeting earning ability last year - 4 games with 9+ targets in 9 full games played, and now he can emerge given the Texans depth chart and now he has an accurate QB in CJ Stroud.
Everything out of OTAs and minicamp is suggesting that Collins is the guy, too… so at an ADP of the 10th round on Underdog - the WR56 off the board - you potentially got yourself a top-36 WR or at least a flex play at a solid discount. He’s someone I’d be targeting at his price.
One Avoid: RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
I totally understand that the Bills “need” Kincaid to be that dude, because they really don’t have anyone dependable behind Stefon Diggs… but when players produce, it’s because they’re ready to produce - the opportunity meets ability at the same time. And I love Kincaid as a prospect, but am I going to bet that Kincaid is going to have the upside of being a difference maker at the position in Year 1? It’s a tough bet to make for me.
We’re also assuming that Dawson Knox completely goes away, and I think he eventually will, but he’s a solid TE that is now a veteran, who is going to be involved as well. He knows the offense, he has a huge contract, and in Kincaid’s Year 1, I can’t imagine that’s running the required route participation of 70-75% with Knox around.
At that price, and it’s going to go up, the hype train hasn’t even begun yet - wait until there’s a video of him making a nice grab in training camp, it’s going to get wild - his TE13 ADP is the price with least amount of hype possible. I think I’m out for 2023.