The Bills offense is built around Josh Allen, but without a true WR1, what’s going to happen? Once Joe Brady took over last year, Stefon Diggs kept an elite 29% target share the rest of the way, even through the playoffs. Dalton Kincaid was up next with 18% target share, which would’ve ranked 8th among TEs last year, and had a 72% route participation, which would’ve ranked 9th among TEs. He finished outside the Top-12s TE in 4 of the 7 regular season games with Brady calling plays, and started to really come back on towards the end of the season and playoffs.
During the weeks with Brady, Kincaid’s combination of an 18% target share and 20% air yard share is consistent with the averages of TEs who finish somewhere between the TE4 and the TE6. So, with a little more playing time - which is still a question mark - we’re looking at a potential Top-3 finish from Kincaid. How many routes will Dawson Knox steal from Kincaid? There’s no way to know that for sure at this point, but I do expect Kincaid’s route participation to go up a bit. And without Diggs there, that is very much a possibility, and Kincaid can definitely be the top target earner on this offense as it stands right now.
Now, I do not think he should be drafted above guys like Trey McBride and Mark Andrews, but ahead of Kyle Pitts makes sense. His TE5 price is justified, and the fact that he’s going around WRs like Keenan Allen, Jayden Reed, Calvin Ridley - he’s a perfectly fine pick there when considering other positions.
Now, among the Bills WRs to pick up where Stefon Diggs left off, it’s between Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir. Coleman is the first Bills WR going off the board as WR46, Samuel’s the WR50, and Shakir’s the WR54. The first thing I think of is this - all of these guys can out-perform their ADPs - under Joe Brady, Teddy Bridgewater had three WRs finish in the Top-24, so there is a good chance of hitting on any of them. But keep in mind, one of those top options on the Bills will be Dalton Kincaid… but which WR should we target?
Brandon Beane already said that he projected Coleman to be their X receiver - and because of that projection, I don’t love him in Year 1. I’ve had my concerns with Coleman in terms of separation, so he might take some time to adjust to that role in the NFL - I can see him having some good games, but I don’t think he’ll have a chance to be a consistent option in Year 1 because of the fact that there are other receivers here who can be productive, including Dalton Kincaid and even James Cook. I’m off of his ADP.
Between Samuel and Shakir, it’s close, but I’m betting on Samuel - he’s been productive in the league, he’s a good receiver who can separate, and he’s not beholden to being a slot receiver - he’s a flanker, and he can play outside and get some targets down the field. He can also play inside, he can play X at times, and he can even take handoffs - he’s the most versatile receiver they have. I think Shakir can be a flanker, but if the Bills thought he could play that role, they wouldn’t have paid Samuel all that money to be reunited with his old OC - who by the way was the OC he had his best season with.
Here’s the other thing: whoever the Bills slot WR is, they might not get a whole lot of playing time. The Bills were in 3 WR sets only 60% of the time under Joe Brady last year, so I think Samuel ends up being the guy on the field more with a higher route participation. I can also see MVS coming on the field for some plays and bumping Samuel inside while Shakir is off the field – Shakir had the same target share last year with Joe Brady as Gabe Davis and James Cook, which isn’t great, but he did lead the team in yards/route run and was 2nd only to Kincaid in first downs/route run with Joe Brady.
To me, it comes down to who I think will be on the field more and get targeted more - and I think Samuel edges Shakir out by a hair. If Samuel is off the board, Shakir is perfectly fine consolation prize, because I do like him as a player and I think he can excel out of the slot if given opportunity. Can’t really beat their WR50 and WR54 price tags.
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