There’s been a lot of talk about George Pickens and how he can potentially thrive with a new QB - he’s even talked about his limitations because of his QB - and now, he doesn’t have to contend with a true target earner like Diontae Johnson.
But is Pickens set to break out as the now #1 WR for Pittsburgh? Maybe. But I think that would be a pretty big assumption. I like to target receivers in dynasty who don’t have to depend on the big play - and that’s really what Pickens’ calling card is. Listen, his first two years in the league - very productive, admittedly in a not so amazing offensive situation - 800 yards as a rookie, 1100 yards in his second year.
But how much is his situation improving this year? Is Arthur Smith’s offense bring any excitement for the pass game? Not really. He couldn’t find ways to get more talented WRs like AJ Brown and Drake London to have big seasons. And how much of an improvement is Russell Wilson going to be? Justin Fields got the most out of DJ Moore last year, but DJ Moore is a much more talented WR than George Pickens. Pickens is a very good field stretcher, he’s one of the best contested catch WRs in the NFL, and I think he is clearly the best WR on that Steelers offense and will demand a nice target share - maybe even hit that 25% mark in his third year - but on a low-volume pass offense, with a non-ideal QB situation once again, I think you can find the George Pickens stans in your league - because there are those people who think Pickens can be an elite receiver in the NFL - let them have him.
2.25 yards/route run for Pickens last year - that was really good. That ranked 16th among all WRs with 100+ targets. But among the Top-20 WRs in yards/route run, he was the only WR to have less than 0.1 first downs/route - what does that mean? It means that he’s really dependent on those big plays, and that he could be due for a regression, especially after leading the league with 18.1 yards/reception. That’s not a sustainable number at all. He also had the lowest targets/route run rate among those WRs as well - so while Pickens can be a very good receiver, I’m not sure we’re going to see that huge jump that many people might think he can make this year as the Steeler’s #1 WR, and it’s very possible we see yet another boom/bust type of fantasy season as a receiver who’s very dependent on those big plays - give me the WRs who will be getting a lot more opportunity at all levels of the field - I don’t think that’s Pickens’ game, and I think many might think he can turn into that guy.
You can buy Mark Andrews for George Pickens, you can get a 1st next year for Pickens if you aren’t competing, and I’m not opposed to getting guys who have the upside to be target earners underneath on top of having big play ability like Ladd McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr with a little more sprinkled in given Pickens has proved that he already belongs in the NFL. Maybe aim to get a Tee Higgins - or a Rashee Rice + a little more thrown in while his value’s down, you can get Christian Kirk plus a little thrown in - I think there are options to move a guy while his perceived value is a little higher than his actual value at the moment, and anyone who thinks he’s going to be the next superstar WR should be able to give you a nice return.