CJ Stroud had an amazing rookie year, and he’s one of the most sought after quarterbacks in drafts at this point. That’s for good reason - he has three ballers at WR, he has a great play caller, they’re projected to score a good amount, and they’re a relatively uptempo offense. If I’m betting on which WR to be the #1, it’s Nico Collins. I think the order of their ADPs are justified - Nico, then Diggs, then Tank Dell.
Even with the potential distributed target share between the three, I think Nico has a good shot of having his WR1 weeks and could potentially even finish as a WR1; he’s being taken off the board as the WR15, which is more than solid. I’m cool with it - he’s that good. With or without Tank Dell in the lineup last year, Nico averaged the same number of targets, and still averaged low-end WR1 numbers with Dell in the lineup. He’s the most well rounded of the group at this point of their careers, and I think he’ll be the first read for Stroud.
Now I’m looking at Diggs as the WR22 off the board, and Tank Dell as the WR26. These ADPs are suggesting that CJ Stroud is going to make these guys all close to WR2s are better, which, frankly, would be quite the feat. While Diggs isn’t necessarily the same player he was, say, two years ago, he’s still a damn good WR, and I think he’s still a better overall WR than Tank Dell as of right now… as much as I love Tank. So at worst I think Diggs is the #2 here in terms of target share, and I think that’s going to mean that either Tank is being overdrafted or that they’re going to be cooking something real special in Houston - three Top-24 WRs rarely happen, but they’ve happened. And given Tank Dell’s big play ability, he can see less targets but be more efficient, and in turn average more fantasy points/game than Diggs.
Yes, Diggs and Nico there will clear a lot of room for Tank to operate, but there are only so many opportunities for the ball to go around. And don’t forget, Tank is also coming back from a fractured fibula - not holding that against him too much, but we shouldn’t forget about that injury. Nico and Tank basically had identical opportunity and stats last year when they were on the field together in a limited sample, but I do think Nico is the best WR, and I do think Diggs will mess with the overall consistency and upside of Tank Dell.
With that being said, I can’t fade any of these three WRs - Bobby Slowik has this offense cooking, CJ Stroud can take another step forward, and all three of these guys are on my draft board - in the order that they’re being drafted in.
And by the way, I think Dalton Schultz is cooked after the Diggs trade. He’ll have his TDs here and there, but I don’t think he’ll be much of an every-week fantasy starter this year assuming these guys are healthy.