Buy Baker Mayfield - QB, TB
He’s coming off the worst fantasy performance of the season against the 49ers – a game in which he threw for just 116 yards and one touchdown – and is heading into the bye this week. Capitalize on his lack of availability for this weekend and nab your solid QB1 the rest of the way.
Mayfield has scored 18 or more points in all but two games this season, and that’s including two games where he’s been down his top-2 weapons in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin remains out for the year, but Evans should be back in the lineup for Week 12 to give Mayfield help on the outside. The Bucs passing game has gotten by through huge contributions from TE Cade Otton and the running backs, Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. Evans will be a welcome addition to the offense that has lacked any significant production from its wide receivers since Evans and Godwin went down.
Tampa Bay’s schedule is cupcake from Week 12 on, to say the least. Mayfield will face four defenses inside the top 7 for most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season in the last six weeks, as well as another solid matchup against the Giants off the bye.
Buying the overall QB2 won’t be cheap, but he has the chance to go on a league-winning run with an incredibly soft schedule and the Buccaneers needing to push for a wild card spot at 4-6.
Buy Brian Thomas Jr. - WR, JAX
Brian Thomas followed up a poor performance against the Eagles in Week 9 with an even worse performance in Week 10 with Mac Jones under center, catching just four of seven targets for 34 total yards over that two game span. Those performances, combined with uncertainty under center, concern about his own health, and a bye week coming up in Week 12 should have his price notoriously low heading into Week 11.
This reminds me of the same situation we were in with Chris Olave a few weeks ago. Like Olave, Thomas’ QB is hurt, he’s dealing with an injury of his own, and the target competition around him has been thinned due to injury. Trevor Lawrence could be out another week or two, but he should be back before the end of the season and hopefully as soon as Week 13 after Jacksonville’s bye. That upgrade under center should put Thomas immediately back on the map as a fantasy WR2.
Then, consider the WR Thomas was when he was healthy from Weeks 1-8. 24% target rate, 20% target share, and he was tied for 2nd in the NFL in touchdowns with 5. He was on pace to set rookie records but his chest injury and Trevor Lawrence going down threw a wrench in those plans.
Luckily, Lawrence and Thomas can get healthy for the stretch run. He has a good matchup on paper against the Lions this week, and you can use the fact that he has a bye yet to drive his price down even lower. Whoever has him is likely disenchanted with his lack of production and will sell for lower than WR2 value – something he can return later in the season along with potential weekly WR1 upside. Gonna bet on the talent here.