Alexander Mattison (RB18, 5-6 turn)
I thought for sure Mattison’s ADP would settle higher than where it did at RB19, but I’m not complaining that it’s still this low.
We actually did a post about this when Cook was released, but I’ll just throw a stat out here that explains just how good Mattison has been without Dalvin Cook in the lineup: in games since 2020 where Mattison handles 50% or more of the snaps in a game, he’s averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game. For context, that would have placed Mattison as the RB1 in points per game among all running backs last year.
Obviously, that stat is for comparison’s sake, and I’m not sure we can expect Mattison to just average 22 points per game in a pass-first offense. The sample size has been small, but the results have been great.
But even if that per-game average drops down to a low-end RB1 number, he’s still being drafted way too low at RB18. Look at it this way: if there were no Dalvin Cook drama going down this offseason, Dalvin Cook would probably be sitting around RB10-RB12 in ADP. Mattison has proven he can be pretty much just as good as Cook for fantasy, yet he’s the RB18 right now. Minnesota’s offense is going to be very fantasy conducive, as usual, so what’s there to be afraid of that’s knocking Mattison’s price down so low?
Rashaad Penny (RB34, 10th Round)
The hype has been around D’Andre Swift since they traded for him during the draft, but let’s not forget about the presumptive early down back in Philadelphia. Rashaad Penny has struggled with staying healthy in his career, yes. But he’ll be playing behind one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in the NFL this year.
And bearing his durability concerns in mind, maybe a comfortable split in workload with Swift would be a good thing to help keep Penny fresh and free of injury. The early down role on the Eagles offense should yield plenty of points via touchdowns, and that’s an ok prospect for a running back like Penny who’s being drafted in the 10th round.
Remember back in the last five weeks of 2021 when Penny averaged 134 rush yards per game (that’s 7 yards per carry) to go along with 6 rushing touchdowns? That ceiling might not be there if he splits work, but the efficiency can be.
Couple a high yards per carry with a high touchdown upside, and you have yourself a potential quality RB2 in the 9th round. Let me ask you a question: who would you rather have, Penny in the 9th round or Zach Charbonnet in the 9th? Or how about Penny in the 9th, or Isiah Pacheco in the 8th? Penny is a value based on his upside alone, and he’s going two rounds later than his teammate D’Andre Swift.