We all know of the inconsistent nature of Joe Mixon, but it looks like it could be one of those games where he goes nuclear in Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns.
Over his last nine games against his in-state rivals (dating back to his rookie year in 2017), Mixon has posted the following performances:
Week 12, 2017: 26 touches, 165 yards, 1 TD (25.5 points, RB4)
Week 12, 2018: 21 touches, 155 yards (22.5 points, RB10)
Week 16, 2018: 19 touches, 78 yards (9.8 points, RB34)
Week 14, 2019: 26 touches, 186 yards, 1 TD (27.6 points, RB3)
Week 17, 2019: 27 touches, 176 yards, 2 TDs (30.6 points, RB4)
Week 2, 2020: 20 touches, 86 yards (12.6 points, RB27)
Week 9, 2021: 18 touches, 110 yards, 2 TDs (28 points, RB4)
Week 8, 2022: 15 touches, 59 yards (12.9 points, RB22)
Week 14, 2022: 16 touches, 106 yards (12.6 points, RB16)
Nice and simple - there are certain players that have a certain team's number and Mixon has the Browns' number, averaging 21 touches, 125 yards, just shy of a TD (0.7 TDs), and 20.2 fantasy points each outing against them.
Everything is aligning for him to have a monster week to open up the season between his extensive history against the Browns, Cleveland's porous run defense last year (8th-most rush yards, 6th-most fantasy points to RBs allowed in 2022), and the likely run-oriented game plan for Cincinnati with Joe Burrow still coming back to full strength with his calf injury.
I've got him as my current RB9 on the week (and will likely see him rise) as there is the very real potential for a 25+ point outing and a top-5 finish from him this week.
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