Good Matchups:
Marquise Brown vs ATL
He’s gotta be one of the most fun plays of the week considering that Kyler Murray will be back under center. At this point, you throw everything we’ve seen out the window and move forward with optimism that Hollywood can go on a tear the rest of the way. He was already seeing a 29% target share and 43% air yards share with Josh Dobbs under center, and that type of utilization should be the expectation for Brown in an offense that’s going to be a lot better.
Now, there’s a chance that Murray could be rusty - he hasn’t played a game since Week 14 of last year, and the new Call of Duty just came out. But I think it won’t take long for him to acclimate, and then you look at the matchup this week for Brown on that left side - the Falcons are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to wide receivers on the left side over the past four games, and they’re a top 15 matchup overall on the season. Seventh most fantasy points overall, too, over the past four weeks.
Brown was averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game with Kyler Murray at QB last year, which would rank him as the WR11 this year. Brown will finally have some upside moving forward with his old college teammate back in the fold.
Michael Pittman Jr. vs NE
Pittman has been one of the most consistent fantasy receivers this season even with the turbulence under center in Indianapolis. He’s consistently earned targets and produced regardless of the matchups he’s faced, and that’s thanks to a 30% target share since week 6 when Gardner Minshew took over as full time starter. Pittman has caught at least eight passes in all but three of his games this season and has put up double-digit point totals in every game but one, as well.
And with a matchup against the Patriots, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers this season and are fresh off allowing two top-24 fantasy finishes to wide receivers last week against Washington, Pittman has a chance to turn in his third-straight top-15 fantasy performance this week. He can be fired up as a high-end WR2 with some upside in the NFL’s final game of the season across the pond.
Bad Matchups:
Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers vs NYJ
Justin Herbert completed just sixteen passes for 136 scoreless yards against the Jets defense in a game they won 27-6, and Keenan Allen was the only player to catch more than two passes from Herbert. If the Chargers offense struggled against the Jets, then you can bet Aidan O’Connell will this week.
This New York defense is much different than the New York defense Las Vegas faced last week, and even against that defense, Davante Adams only caught four passes. Jakobi Meyers had to do his best Deebo Samuel impression, too against the Giants last week to be relevant! The Jets are allowing the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers and the fewest fantasy points to receivers overall this year.
Taking the under would be advisable in this one, I would say (the total is currently sitting at 37 – the lowest of any game this week), and that spells another week of diluted fantasy production from Adams and Meyers. At this point, there’s no end in sight – Adams did see a 29% target share last week, but Adams has scored more than nine fantasy points just once over the past five weeks. If there were a matchup for him to turn things around in, this game against the Jets isn’t it.