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Writer's pictureTyler Alexander

Week 10 Trade Targets & Trade Bait


Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.


And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get.


For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you. These are my favorite players to target and my favorite players to shop as their current value and future value don't necessarily align due to easy matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc.


Top Trade Targets/Buy-Low Candidates This Week:
  1. James Conner (RB - Arizona Cardinals)

    • The Arizona Cardinals have seemingly found their offensive identity and its name is James Conner.

    • In 9 games this season, James Conner has eclipsed 16+ carries in all but two of them, has hit double-digit touches in each of them, has hit 19+ touches in all but two games, and has tallied at least 14 fantasy points in all but two games.

    • He is far and away the Cardinals' workhorse back with just one instance all year of another Cardinals' RB hitting 10+ touches (Week 2), but somehow managed to be seemingly the only player not to hit the endzone in Arizona's 20-point blowout of the Bears this past week with Emari Demercado, Trey Benson, and Trey McBride all recording rushing TDs.

    • It's a very narrow window to buy Conner in preparation for a playoff run with the back having posted good, but not great, performances the last few weeks, and now drawing the 9th-easiest remaining SOS and the single-easiest playoff SOS for fantasy.

    • Conner should be bought as a fringe RB1 at mid-to-high RB2 prices but ultimately headlines my list of potential league-winners coming fantasy playoff time.

  2. DJ Moore (WR - Chicago Bears)

    • It's been three consecutive 'down' games for Moore - the first coming as a product of a negative game script in a blowout vs the Jaguars and the other two coming via a stagnant offense against Washington and Arizona - failing to top 7.3 points in any of those games.

    • The Bears offense should be rebounding this week vs New England and is positioned for a fruitful stretch of games from Moore in the coming weeks.

    • Now is probably the lowest you're going to get Moore for on the trade market, seeing his recent struggles. I'm anticipating a rebound more closely to his early-season production where he had posted 10+ points in each of the first five weeks of the season (including 8+ targets in 4/5 games).

    • I'm expecting that because he's drawing a very attractive schedule:

      • The 2nd-easiest SOS over the next 4

      • The single-easiest SOS over the remainder of the season

      • The single-easiest SOS in the fantasy playoffs

    • Time to buy him as a borderline WR1 option that should plug into your lineup as a very high-end WR2 but likely cost you the price of a mid-WR2.

  3. Cade Otton (TE - Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

    • It's not very often that I'm recommending trading for a TE coming off three consecutive 18+ point games and back-to-back games with at least a TD, but here we are.

    • At a position where there has been no consistency beyond the names George Kittle and Brock Bowers, Cade Otton looks like he will be joining that exclusive group of consistent (and highly productive) TEs the rest of the way in 2023 purely off volume alone.

    • He's garnered 10+ targets each of the last three weeks and has totaled 25 catches and 31 targets in that span, those are numbers that rank 2nd in catches and 5th in targets, not just among TEs, but among all players in that stretch. Mike Evans will likely return following the Bucs' Week 11 bye, but it should be a relatively even offset in target share going out and reduced defensive attention coming back in return.

    • If you're sitting in even a semi-competitive position for a deep playoff run and don't have one of Kittle/Bowers/Kelce, I'd be pushing in the chips to make a move for Otton, even if it isn't necessarily a "buy low" point for him. His volume should be a major positional advantage come fantasy playoff time, especially with Tampa drawing the 7th-easiest playoff SOS among TEs (and the 5th-easiest remaining SOS).

 
Low-Cost Targets/Stashes:
  1. Dak Prescott (QB - Dallas Cowboys)

    • Yes, Dak Prescott is set to miss somewhere around 4-5 weeks with his hamstring injury, likely heading to IR this week.

    • This is a really low-risk/high-upside investment for those eyeing up the fantasy playoffs. He won't give you anything until the fantasy playoffs and has the potential to be shut down for the season should the Cowboys completely fall out of the playoff race, but he could easily end up a league-winner.

    • Should Prescott return, he gets the 3rd-easiest playoff schedule among fantasy QBs, facing Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia in what would be all must-win games for the Cowboys' playoff chances.

    • He may find his way onto waivers, but if he doesn't, I'd be targeting him at the cost of depth bench players, hoping to stick him in an IR spot with the 50/50 chance he returns.

  2. Braelon Allen (RB - New York Jets)

    • We're getting closer to the end of the season, which means handcuff RBs are becoming more valuable, and there may not be a better handcuff in fantasy than Braelon Allen to Breece Hall.

    • You're not looking to add Allen in the hopes that he gets an increased role naturally down the stretch here. You're looking to add Allen purely as an insurance option in the scenario that should Breece Hall go down to an injury, Braelon Allen immediately becomes a top-10 fantasy RB, especially with the Jets drawing the single-easiest SOS for RBs the rest of the season and the 3rd-easiest SOS in the fantasy playoffs.

    • He will cost next to nothing to get, likely commanding only a minor bench piece via trade, or in some circumstances is still on waivers (33% owned on Yahoo, 24% owned on ESPN). He should be owned going down the stretch here simply as a handcuff. If he's not already owned, put in a waiver claim for him. If he is owned, put in a trade offer for him. The potential with Allen outweighs the likely minimal impact whatever bench piece you'd be giving up would offer.

 
Top Trade Bait/Sell-High Candidates This Week:
  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR - Seattle Seahawks)

    • I love Jaxon Smith-Njigba from a dynasty standpoint, but from a redraft, it's time to sell.

    • He's been solid all season, hitting 10+ points in 6 of 9 games this year, but really hasn't presented much of an upside with exceeding 13 points in just 2 games. However, this past week was one of those two games, and he certainly was a week-winner if in lineups, posting a career day with 7 catches for 180 yards, 2 TDs, and 37.0 fantasy points.

    • That was fantastic for this past week, but DK Metcalf likely returns after (or very soon after) the Seahawks' Week 10 bye, meaning it's back to the consistent 3-6 catch, 10-point performances we've seen from JSN this season.

    • This isn't a knock on him, but it's time to get the most 'bang for your buck' and move him in an attempt to truly upgrade to a WR2 option that will be more beneficial for you down the stretch here.

  2. Rico Dowdle (RB - Dallas Cowboys)

    • Dowdle has been rather decent in his last few games, hitting 10+ points in each of his last four games, including a 21-point performance this past week against Atlanta, and while there isn't significant direct competition in the Cowboys' RB room (Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook), I'm likely taking what I can get for Dowdle and moving on.

    • The issue for me with Dowdle isn't workload (10+ touches in 6/7 games, 13+ touches in 3 of his last 4), it's efficiency and sustainability. He's been producing at a solid 4.5 YPC clip this season, which isn't the concern, but that likely takes a sharp decline with QB Dak Prescott likely sidelined 4+ weeks, allowing defenses to strictly focus on doubling CeeDee Lamb and stacking the box with little threat of the passing attack.

    • That leads to my other concern: team scoring. Dowdle has been successful the last month due to his ability to find the endzone, scoring a TD in three of his last four games. In games where he hasn't found the endzone, he has yet to hit 11+ points. I simply don't have the confidence in Cooper Rush to lead the Cowboys' offense to enough redzone opportunities to make Dowdle a reliable TD threat.

    • After his 21-point game, I'm looking to try and get FLEX value out of Dowdle, unless you're in a very comfortable spot where you can sit and wait for the fantasy playoffs, in which Dowdle does present some promising upside (5th-easiest SOS).

  3. Rachaad White (RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

    • It's becoming very clear that it no longer is a 1A/1B situation favoring Rachaad White in Tampa for the rushing work but rather a 1A/1B split in favor of Bucky Irving with the rookie having the larger role in the rushing attack.

    • White still remains the lead receiving back, having hit 3+ targets in all but one game this season, but it's becoming ever so apparent that White's weekly production is reliant on whether or not he's finding the endzone now that the rushing role has dissipated. He's been viable the last three weeks, hitting 12+ points and finishing as a top-25 RB each of those weeks, but it's come as a result of finding the endzone in each game (including a 2-TD performance vs Baltimore).

    • He does have the potential to find some traction in the running game following the Week 11 bye (games vs NYG and CAR in Weeks 12 and 13), but the larger picture says he's not a stable option going forward, especially with Mike Evans' upcoming return.

    • I'm looking to take advantage of three consecutive games with a TD, which has elevated his trade value a bit, and trade him in a package deal to move up for a higher-end RB2 option, or at the very least one with more week-to-week stability in workload.

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