DET (-4) @ NO
DET: Allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season - 2nd-most to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Have allowed QB1 finishes to Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, and Jordan Love in back-to-back-to-back weeks since coming off their bye. It’s almost enough to make you want to start Derek Carr, but he could be short Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas this week. Derek Carr is also incredibly mid as a fantasy QB - so he’s a low-QB2 like usual.
DET: Allowing the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season. Things have fallen apart on the backend for the Lions but their front remains as stout as ever. Given how thin the Lions are at receiver though, I’m still penciling in Alvin Kamara for eight targets and around five catches in what’s probably going to be a game that gets away from New Orleans pretty quickly.
NO: Allowing the 8th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. This feels like a David Montgomery game where the Lions go up big and they don’t need to run up the mileage on Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs is great, don’t get me wrong – but if you have a sports car and a dually pickup truck in the backfield, which one are you going to let do the tough running for you? I’m not worried about the matchup - the game script shouldn’t get to a point where the running backs are nullified, and David Montgomery has scored a touchdown in every game he’s started this season besides the Buccaneers game.
ATL (-2.5) @ NYJ
ATL: Allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season - not that it matters. If you’re starting Tim Boyle this week for fantasy football, you’re deep in the trenches.
NYJ: Allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Does this smell like a Bijan Robinson game to you? Because it reeks of it to me. Just wait till you hear about how the Jets have fared against the run this year – Arthur Smith is salivating just thinking about the run-heavy game script he’s about to call.
ATL: Allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season. Breece Hall has cooled down along with the entire Jets offense, which is frozen solid. But if Tim Boyle is set to dump the ball off 10 times to Breece Hall like he did last week, Breece Hall should have a solid floor for you in this one. The ceiling remains low thanks to the dysfunctional offense, though.
NYJ: Allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to running backs on the season. This includes over the past four weeks as well – the Jets have allowed three top-12 finishes at running back over the past four weeks. We just saw the Falcons give Bijan his work in the receiving game back from earlier this season – if there was a matchup for him to turn the corner and maintain that work in, it’s this one. Desmond Ridder isn’t going to have anything going downfield.
ARI @ PIT (-5.5)
ARI: Allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. An unstoppable force meets an immovable object as Kenny Pickett clashes with Swiss cheese – he has yet to finish as a top-12 quarterback in any game this season and he’s thrown just one touchdown over the past six weeks since Pittsburgh’s bye.
PIT: Allowing the 6th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. Doesn’t particularly scare me given Kyler Murray’s rushing upside – he’s scored on the ground in three straight games and supplements that production with 200+ yards passing. All of the Steelers’ wins have come in one-possession games, and with them favored by 5.5, the game script will call for playmaking all game long from Kyler Murray.
ARI: Allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to running backs on the season. A true match made in heaven for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, both of whom I’m inclined to trust as fantasy RB2s this week. As we’ve discussed many times before, the running backs are the center of what Pittsburgh does on offense – don’t let a down game last week from Warren scare you away from starting him in a plus matchup.