Bears WRs vs MIN
All of these Bears WRs are earning targets – Moore is at a 28% target share, Keenan Allen is at a 27% target share, and Odunze is at 21% since Shane Waldron was fired as OC. They’re all averaging well over their season-long points per game over the past four games; Moore is up to 18.3 from 11.1, Allen is up to 15.3 from 8.9, and Odunze is up to 11.5 from 8.5. Translation: Moore is a safe WR2 start, Keenan Allen is a strong WR3 start, and Odunze profiles as an acceptable flex.
The last time these two teams met, Moore and Allen finished as the WRs 4 and 8, respectively. Minnesota is allowing the most receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so you can fire all three of them up this week with confidence in their respective roles.
Jakobi Meyers vs ATL
For Meyers’ sake, let’s hope Aidan O’Connell plays on Monday. It seems like he has a legit shot, and if he plays, Meyers will be a strong start again against a Falcons defense that’s giving up the third-most receptions, sixth-most receiving yards, and the most touchdowns to receivers this season.
Atlanta is also allowing more than 10 points per game more to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL over the past four games. Any receivers to touch the field against them have quite literally turned to gold, so plug Meyers in as your WR2 once again even after an underwhelming performance last week in a similarly strong matchup. Meyers was still at a 27% target share last week.
Bills WRs vs DET
This WR room is going to be an absolute shitshow if Keon Coleman returns to the lineup, but if there’s a matchup where all of these pass catchers can come through, this would be it against Detroit. The Lions are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to WRs over the last four weeks, as well as the second-most receptions and receiving yards over the course of the season.
Amari Cooper upped his target share to a gnarly 38% on his 63% route participation, so he becomes a clear WR2 start now that he’s healthy. He’s also killed it against single-high coverage this season, earning targets at the 9th highest rate against that defense – and the Lions run it at the 9th-highest rate. Khalil Shakir should continue to be a worthwhile play as a fantasy WR3, though his matchup is a bit tougher with Detroit only allowing the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to slot receivers over the past four games.
Coleman would be a flex play with some upside in a matchup as good as this one, but I’m not exactly chomping at the bit to get him into my lineup in his first game back for the fantasy playoffs.
Malik Nabers vs BAL
Nabers is the lowest in my rankings he’s been all season, and it’s because not even elite target earning can save him from the abomination that the Giants offense is right now. Despite ranking second in the NFL in target share since Week 7, Nabers has averaged just 13 PPR points per game in that span – a four-point per-game difference between his actual and expected 17.1 PPR points per game.
The Ravens are still allowing the second-most fantasy points per game on paper to wide receivers this season, but over the past four games, they’re only allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game. I don’t trust Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock under center for New York, and Nabers hasn’t been over 16 points in a game since returning from his concussion way back when.