Baker Mayfield vs DAL
Mayfield has finished as a top-10 quarterback ten times this season in 14 games and scored at least 20 fantasy points in nine of those games. Mike Evans looked like Mike Evans last week, Jalen McMillan is coming on, and the Bucs backfield is involved in the receiving game, too – especially in the red zone.
The matchup against Dallas this week is fantastic: they’re allowing the 10th-most passing yards and 4th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and the 5th-most over the past four weeks. Quarterbacks are also averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game in games played in Dallas, and Mayfield has been one of the most reliable starters this season. He’s my overall QB6 this week.
Russell Wilson vs BAL
Russell Wilson’s appeal as a starter this week is fully contingent on George Pickens playing. Without Pickens over the past two weeks, Wilson hasn’t eclipsed 160 passing yards in either game and completed just 14 and 15 passes in each. Pickens didn’t practice on Tuesday, so keep a close eye on his status before making any start/sit decisions involving Russ.
On paper, the matchup against the Ravens looks solid – they’re allowing the 5th-most fantasy points, the most passing yards, and the 7th-most passing touchdowns per game this season. But they’ve tightened up tremendously over the past four games, allowing just the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest passing yards and touchdowns over the past four games.
I’m personally avoiding Russell Wilson this week between the questions about Pickens’ status and the tough matchup in Baltimore. Russ couldn’t come through last week either in another tough road matchup against the Eagles, and we could be in for more of the same.
James Conner vs CAR
The golden matchup for running backs is James Conner’s to exploit this week, with the Panthers allowing the most fantasy points, rush attempts, rushing yards, and rush touchdowns per game in the NFL. There are no two ways to cut it: this is the best fantasy matchup a running back can have, and it just so happens that playoff James Conner is stepping into it.
Conner has averaged 21 opportunities per game over the past three weeks and turned in his best fantasy performance of the season in – you guessed it – the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Almost hilariously, he averaged 19 and 22.1 PPR points per game in the fantasy playoffs in 2022 and 2023, respectively, and he just dropped a 30 burger to kick off the 2024 fantasy playoffs. I could be letting the lore carry his ranking a bit, but I have him as my RB6 this week.
Ameer Abdullah vs JAX
Abdullah has the highest ceiling of any Raiders RB not named Sincere McCormick, and that’s exclusively thanks to his ability in the receiving game: he has two top-8 finishes in the past four weeks, and he caught all seven of his targets last week against the Falcons and added a touchdown.
He’s almost exclusively a play in PPR unless he would take on more work in the ground game, but we haven’t seen him handle more than 50% of the RB carries in a game. The matchup against Jacksonville, though, plays right into Abdullah’s skillset: the Jaguars are allowing the 5th-most receptions, the 2nd-most receiving yards, and the 8th-most receiving touchdowns to running backs this season.
He’s a flex play with RB2 upside depending on how involved Mattison is, but assuming Sincere McCormick is out, Abdullah could have a place in lineups for teams who have been relying on Nick Chubb and even Tony Pollard if he’s ultimately ruled out.