Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs MIN
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is officially the WR to start in the Seahawks' offense, and he might be the only pass catcher worth starting at this point with D.K. Metcalf averaging only 9.8 points per game since Seattle’s bye in Week 10. Compare that to JSN’s 18.3 in that same span (and Tyler Lockett’s 3.1), and JSN’s team-leading 27% target share, and it’s clear that he can be locked into lineups each week as a low-WR1 start.
The matchup against the Vikings on paper is a good one, with Minnesota ranking top-5 in receiving yards, receptions, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game allowed season-long and over the past four games. JSN has had at least 74 yards in each of his past six games, but that’s been with Geno Smith at quarterback. We’ll see if Geno’s able to go for Week 16, but if it’s Sam Howell under center, JSN would likely slide into the WR2 rankings for the semi-finals.
George Pickens vs BAL
The Ravens used to be the best matchup in fantasy football for wide receivers, and their season-long stats reflect that: they’re giving up the 2nd-most fantasy points per game on the year while also ranking top-5 in receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, and 20+ yard receptions allowed.
That’s changed as of late, though, with the Ravens giving up the fewest fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. The Steelers have had next to no success in the passing game without Pickens in the lineup, and Pickens has accounted for a 27% target share and 43% air yards share this season. If Pickens plays, he’ll be a solid WR2 play – although his upside isn’t what it would have been a few weeks ago in this same matchup.
Jakobi Meyers vs JAX
Alright, let’s try this one more time… Jakobi Meyers has a fantastic matchup for the third week in a row. He couldn’t come through the way we wanted him to against the Bucs or the Falcons, but that’s been largely because he’s had to deal with Desmond Ridder under center in those games. There’s a chance Aidan O’Connell is back this week, but regardless of who starts, Meyers can be in lineups as a WR3 at worst with WR2 upside.
The Jaguars are top-5 in receiving yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points allowed per game this season, and allow big plays (both 20+ and 40+ yards) at the highest rate in the league. The game should be relatively competitive, too, since the Jaguars themselves are dealing with Mac Jones at quarterback. We’ll see if he can find the upside he’s been missing as of late since Minshew has left the lineup.
Malik Nabers vs ATL
Drew Lock was named the starter this week – not that it matters, since Nabers has been earning targets at the highest rate within his offense of any player in the league. His 35% target share ranks tops among all wide receivers, and he finally found the end zone last week to give him his first touchdown and finish inside the top 15 since Week 3.
Up next: a matchup in Atlanta against the Falcons, who are allowing the 6th-most receptions, the most receiving touchdowns, and the 4th-most fantasy points per game this year. Nabers has scored at least 10 points in all but one of his games this season, so he checks in as a low-end WR2 with WR1 upside based on his volume alone.
Packers WRs vs NO
The top three Packers WRs (Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed) all have exactly one top-12 finish apiece in the five games since Green Bay’s bye, and they all occurred in separate weeks from each other. As a result, they’re all pretty much flex plays at this point with the distribution between them for targets being so evenly spread out.
They have a great matchup this week against the Saints, who are very banged up – they’re allowing the 5th-most receiving yards per game, the sixth-most receptions, and the 5th-most fantasy points. Romeo Doubs not only has the advantage as the top receiver when it comes to route participation and target share, but his matchup on the right side is the best of all Green Bay’s receivers: New Orleans is allowing the most points to receivers on the right side and the 2nd-most over the past four weeks.
Bears WRs vs DET
Back to the well again with Moore and Odunze, who despite being part of the Bears’ weekly crash out on offense have both managed to put up at least two top-10 finishes over the past four games. We’ve talked it to death, but it bears mentioning again – Allen and Moore are both averaging at least 28% target share since Waldron was fired, with Odunze pulling up the rear at a still respectable 21%.
Odunze hasn’t been startable despite the generally respectable role he has in Chicago, but Moore and Allen can take advantage of a squishy (again) pass defense of the Lions: Detroit is allowing the 3rd-most receptions and receiving yards of any team this season, as well as the sixth-most fantasy points per game. Moore and Allen are both fringe WR2 starts, while Odunze is, again, a low WR3 play at best.
Ceedee Lamb vs TB
So it turns out that the Cooper Rush experience hasn’t been as atrocious as it looked like it was going to be after his 45 passing-yard, egg-laying in Week 11 against the Eagles. Since then in games where Lamb didn’t exit the game early due to injury, Lamb is averaging 11 targets, 20.9 points per game, and finished as a top-14 wide receiver or better in each of them.
This is the best matchup Lamb will have the rest of the season against the Buccaneers, who are allowing the 4th-most receptions, 10th-most receiving yards, and 7th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Tampa Bay has gotten better at defending wide receivers in recent weeks, but volume like Lamb has been getting – coupled with improved play from Cooper Rush – should make him a safe WR1 start again in Week 16.
Xavier Worthy vs HOU
Worthy’s 14 touches in Week 15 marked a career-high for him, and his scoring floor has settled right around 10 PPR points over the past few weeks. Normally, he could be upgraded to a solid flex play with touchdown upside, but with Patrick Mahomes teetering on the precipice of being inactive with his ankle sprain, his security takes a hit and moves him into risky flex territory if Carson Wentz would wind up under center.
The matchup against Houston has been hit or miss – the Texans knocked Tua off his high horse last week and served up three interceptions in a win over the Dolphins, but they’re also allowing the most passing touchdowns per game this season on top of the 8th-most fantasy points. Hopkins and Worthy are both desperate flexes with upside if Wentz is QB, but they are safer plays if Mahomes is able to go.
Mike Evans vs DAL
My very bold prediction of the week: Mike Evans gets the 251 yards receiving he needs to break 1000 on the season on Sunday night against the Cowboys. Since rejoining the Bucs in Week 12, Evans has averaged a 29% target share, 46% air yards share, and 21.4 PPR points per game. Jalen McMillan has come on a bit as of late, but Evans has completely bodied Cade Otton out of the target distribution and is the clear number-one target for Mayfield.
The matchup for Evans against the Cowboys is elite, with Dallas allowing the 6th-most receiving yards, the 9th-most receptions, and the 2nd-most receptions of 40+ yards this season. That amounts to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed over the last four weeks, and if you can believe it: the Bucs-Cowboys game has the highest total of the week at 48.5. Evans is my overall WR5 this week.
Courtland Sutton vs LAC
Sutton has had at least 8 targets in every game he’s played since his cardio game in Week 7, but last week was dangerously close to being his first dud since then – it took a last-minute touchdown from Bo Nix to rescue him from what would have been a 5-point performance against the Colts. Luckily, he was able to come through at the end of the day, and his utilization continues to point towards a wide receiver who can be trusted in lineups as a strong WR2 moving forward.
Despite being a tough matchup in real life, the Chargers defense is allowing the 5th-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers as well as the 12th-most fantasy points this year. That number jumps to the 10th-most over the past four games, too, and with no other pass catchers in the offense notching higher than a 13% target share, it should all be Courtland Sutton’s for the taking in what should be a quality matchup against the Chargers on Thursday night.
Brian Thomas Jr. vs LV
All Brian Thomas Jr. has done since Trevor Lawrence went down in three games since their Week 12 bye is average a 31% target share (12 targets), 47% air yards share, and 22.6 points per game. After having no games with double-digit targets before the bye, BTJ has gone three straight games with 10 or more targets and had his first double-digit reception game last week against the Jets (who had Sauce Gardner, btw).
The Raiders were, on paper, a much tougher defense to contend with earlier in the season than they are now. After allowing the 9th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers overall this season, they’ve flipped and allowed the 9th-most over the past four games. Regardless of matchup, though, Thomas belongs in lineups as a fringe WR1 – he’s my current WR10.
Puka & Kupp vs Jets
Start ‘em. Yes, even Cooper Kupp – before the bagel last week, he was averaging 27% target share and 18 points per game. Both of them are top-15 starts, with Puka being a top-2 start for me overall in my rankings this week.
The Jets are a tough matchup on paper season-long, but much like the Raiders, they’ve let up as of late with the season getting out of hand – New York has gone from allowing the 5th-fewest fantasy points per game this season to receivers to the 5th-most over the past four weeks.