Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.
And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get.
For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you. These are my favorite players to target and my favorite players to shop as their current value and future value don't necessarily align due to easy matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc.
Top Trade Targets/Buy-Low Candidates This Week:
Mark Andrews (TE - Baltimore Ravens)
All I've seen is panic around Mark Andrews and his presumed downfall after an extreme disappointment in just one week. News flash: Andrews was in a car accident just weeks prior to Week 1 and has been schemed out of every single matchup against the Chiefs in his career (4.6 career PPG vs KC, has exceeded 6 points in just 1/6 games). There is no reason to panic yet, especially with every other top-10 TE on ADP (except Kyle Pitts) finishing with 8.5 points or fewer.
May we be seeing the decline of Andrews? Possibly, but it's highly unlikely he just falls off completely in just one season. Take a swing at a likely top-5 or top-6 TE this season at a major discount. I'm anticipating something close to the Eagles' Zach Ertz (TE4) and Dallas Goedert (TE10) situation in 2019 where Ertz was beginning his decline and Goedert was emerging.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR - Arizona Cardinals)
It was an ugly debut for the highest-touted rookie WR in recent memory, drawing just 3 targets and just 1 catch (for 4 yards). A large part of this was the Cardinals' hyper-conservative play-calling relatively early into the game after going up multiple scores in the first half. It wasn't until late in the game when they lost their massive lead, forcing them to open up the offense, and even then Harrison was a mere glance to the right from Kyler Murray away from a 15+ point day (as he was wide open without a defender within 20+ yards).
It's a perfect opportunity to try and get him for a rather significant discount as owners are likely a tad bit frustrated with the debut of their (likely) 2nd round pick. I'm trying to throw a mid-to-high WR2 plus a sweetener to try and get Harrison before the Cardinals' offense involves him more (as Arizona's OC has made a specific note of trying to do going forward).
Chris Olave (WR - New Orleans)
There are two reasons why Olave had an underwhelming 3-point Week 1:
He was shadowed by lockdown corner, Jaycee Horn.
It was a BLOWOUT - the Saints were up 2 scores within the first five minutes of the game, were up 17 by the end of the first quarter, and were up 30-3 to end the first half.
Olave and the passing game simply weren't needed to move the ball, resulting in no Saints player exceeding 5 targets and just one exceeding 4 catches (Kamara). Sure, Shaheed succeeded but nearly all of his production came off a 59-yard TD, which isn't repeatable each week.
The Saints don't get to play the Panthers each week, so it's safe to say this type of volume is an anomaly for Olave (as we saw last year). Time to buy him as a fringe-WR1 at a likely mid-WR2 price tag.
Low-Cost Targets/Stashes:
Adonai Mitchell (WR - Indianapolis Colts)
It is pretty clear this Colts offense is going to be based around two things - the running game and the deep ball - both of which make volatility a big issue for WRs but something that creates weekly upside for select skill-set players (i.e. Mitchell).
We saw the likes of Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin get 50+ yard bombs while Mitchell was left with a lonely 1 catch for 2 yards but was narrowly missed on two potential TDs. At a 64% snap share and 75% route participation in Week 1, Mitchell is involved, but not yet featured as a premier piece in this offense yet.
With us having already seen the deep ball at work from Richardson, I'm trying to buy into what should be his definitive WR2 and deep ball threat in A.D. Mitchell before he pops off. It's only a matter of time before it is Mitchell on the receiving end of those deep TDs, and the best thing is you can get him for pennies on the dollar.
Jaylen Wright (RB - Miami Dolphins)
It only took one week for the Dolphins' RB room to get banged up - Raheem Mostert is sidelined with a chest injury while De'Von Achane is sidelined with an ankle injury and both were listed as DNPs on both Monday (estimated) and Tuesday (walkthrough) practices. While one or both could be in for Week 2, this is a move to position yourself down the line.
Wright is a comparable back to De'Von Achane in physical ability and shared a similar Week 1 status as a rookie (healthy scratch) to Achane's rookie season. With both already banged up (and Achane likely to miss time at some point this season), Wright could easily emerge as a borderline must-play option at some point this season.
At worst, you can pick up Wright for nothing (waivers) or next to nothing (via trade) on the bench to wait and see if he gets a role in the coming weeks.
Top Trade Bait/Sell-High Candidates This Week:
Jayden Reed (WR - Green Bay Packers)
His position-leading 33.1 PPR points looks amazing on paper, but in reality, it's not even close to sustainable with over 70% of his points on the week coming from two plays. This will be the nature of Reed (and most of the Packers' WRs) throughout the season - massive highs but very little week-to-week stability due to big-play ability but limited volume.
With Love set to miss some time, I'm very weary of his short-term value as well as long-term weekly security. I'd strongly recommend trying to sell him at a WR2 price tag after such a massive week, possibly using reports of as short as a 3-week absence from Love as a positive sales pitch to move Reed above his actual worth.
Stefon Diggs (WR - Houston Texans)
Week 1 was a perfect indication of what will be the narrative for the Texans' WR situation in 2024 fantasy football - two WRs were productive (Diggs, Collins) and one disappointed (Dell).
My biggest worry with Diggs is a lack of weekly volume, something that allowed him to be productive in Buffalo but also something that is in major question in Houston given the number of mouths to feed. He led the Texans' WR room in fantasy points (21.9) but saw the fewest targets (and yards) of the 'big 3', having his production purely come from two short-yardage TDs.
Do I think he's going to exceed my preseason rank of WR30? Yes, but I don't know that he'll be a top-30 WR in value (given consistency), and don't believe he'll be able to match what you likely will be able to get for him after his 2-TD week.
Isaiah Likely (TE - Baltimore Ravens)
It's the inverse situation of Mark Andrews (see above) - Likely had a career game where Mark Andrews (and to some extent, Zay Flowers) was schemed out of the game defensively from the Chiefs, leaving the entirety of the Ravens' passing game to be dump-offs to Justice Hill and Isaiah Likely.
Andrews will be the featured TE in this offense - it would come as a major shock if not the case, and while I do think Likely will be a potential low-end TE1 option throughout the course of the season, I doubt he'll match what you can likely get via a trade market for him after his 111-yard, 26-point performance in Week 1.
Even if you grabbed him off waivers this week, I'd strongly suggest putting feelers out for him on the trade market, looking to package him with a bench player to try and make a move for a mid-to-high TE1 that likely struggled in Week 1.
コメント