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Week 3 Trade Targets & Trade Bait


Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.


And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get.


For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you. These are my favorite players to target and my favorite players to shop as their current value and future value don't necessarily align due to easy matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc.


Top Trade Targets/Buy-Low Candidates This Week:
  1. Jayden Daniels (QB - Washington Commanders)

    • We've just seen Daniels' floor for fantasy: just no TDs and only 10 rushing attempts. He was still the QB18. That's the absolute floor.

    • Through two weeks, Daniels hasn't thrown a TD and has been hyper-conservative with a mere 4.9 aDOT (2nd-lowest) and 5.7% of passes being deep balls (4th-lowest), but he still is the QB6 in fantasy.

    • I'd be fairly confident to say his 13-point performance in Week 2 is either the lowest or among the lowest he sees in all of 2024. This is a perfect chance to get what should be a stable QB1 with high-QB1 upside for a massive discount, especially considering we haven't even seen him come close to his ceiling. He has league-winning potential.

  2. Travis Kelce (TE - Kansas City Chiefs)

    • Through the first two games of 2024, Kelce has just 4 catches for 39 yards - the lowest yardage output in any two-game stretch in his career.

    • With Isiah Pacheco (broken fibula, out 6+ weeks) and Marquise Brown (shoulder, out for the season) both sidelined, the Chiefs' offense is almost certain to be extremely pass-heavy going forward, so Kelce will be forced to be involved substantially more than the opening two weeks of the season.

    • He may not be his former elite TE1 self, but it would be quite a surprise to see him finish outside the top 6 in scoring, even after such a poor start. I'm targeting him this week after back-to-back underwhelming performances in the hopes of flipping a mid-to-low TE1 (i.e. Kittle, Likely, Pitts) plus a bench piece to buy low on Kelce.

  3. Bijan Robinson (RB - Atlanta Falcons)

    • There may not be a safer RB in fantasy right now than Bijan, getting 18+ touches and 16+ fantasy points in each of the first two weeks of the season, and there still feels to be a lot of 'meat on the bone' left to be had for Robinson.

    • He hasn't come close to hitting his ceiling, failing to find the endzone in any capacity (he's the highest-scoring RB to fail to do such) due to the Falcons' offense being relatively stagnant through the first two games (Bijan has just 2 carries in the redzone). The offense did appear to find its rhythm late in the game last week, so it shouldn't be long before Bijan begins finding the endzone, taking his solid performances into week-winning ones.

    • I'm targeting Bijan to try and get an elite-RB1 (my overall RB1) for the rest of the season at what should be a major discount relative to his anticipated future value. Perhaps using a high-producer so far (i.e. Alvin Kamara, De'Von Achane, James Cook) as a key trade piece to upgrade to Bijan may be a route to get him.

 
Low-Cost Targets/Stashes:
  1. Diontae Johnson (WR - Carolina Panthers)

    • It has been a rough start to his Carolina Panthers' career for Diontae Johnson, registering a combined 5 catches for 34 yards on 12 targets through the first two weeks, failing to eclipse 5+ points in either game. Out goes Bryce Young and in comes Andy Dalton. While this shouldn't completely turn around the Panthers' offense, one should expect a much more volume-centric and efficient passing offense.

    • The worst-case scenario is you're paying pennies on the dollar for Diontae as a WR4/5 option on your bench and the QB change doesn't pay off. The best-case scenario is the move to Dalton allows Johnson to live up to his PPR-oriented WR2 potential that many had anticipated. It's an extremely low-risk/high-upside move for WR depth.

  2. Xavier Worthy (WR - Kansas Chiefs)

    • As I mentioned with Travis Kelce (see above), the absence of Pacheco will now likely force the Chiefs into an even more Mahomes-centric offense. Those passes have to go to someone and the Chiefs will likely be forced into scheming Worthy more into the offense going forward to open up room for Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to be the focal points of the offense.

    • Worthy very easily could emerge as a WR3/FLEX option in the coming weeks if the volume follows the Chiefs' pass-oriented move. Pay the price for a bench piece with substantial upside - I'd even go as far as slightly overpaying if needed (not giving up any startable players, though).

 
Top Trade Bait/Sell-High Candidates This Week:
  1. Rashid Shaheed (WR - New Orleans Saints)

    • Through two weeks, Shaheed is the WR9 in fantasy with over 180 yards, 2 TDs, and back-to-back top-15 finishes.

    • There are three issues with this:

      1. The volume isn't there - he only has 7 catches and 9 targets.

      2. The production is only from big plays - over 72% of his points come from 2 long TDs.

      3. The Saints' offense has performed at an unsustainable level.

    • I love Shaheed as a bench option and was higher than most on him coming into the season, but back-to-back big games to open the season gives the perfect opportunity to sell high on him and get yourself a legitimate FLEX (or better) option. The production and efficiency simply aren't sustainable for Shaheed as we've seen him rally off games with big TDs but otherwise be a non-factor for fantasy.

  2. Kyren Williams (RB - Los Angeles Rams)

    • Let me preface this by saying I think Williams will have substantial volume for the foreseeable future, possibly getting north of 20+ touches on a weekly basis with the Rams left to lean on him in the absence of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for the coming weeks.

    • However, I have little confidence the Rams' offense will be able to function at a reasonable level to allow Kyren to be overly effective with that volume. We've already seen him salvage otherwise poor games each of the first two weeks with goal-line TDs and there doesn't appear to be reason for optimism with the Rams' O-Line, which has allowed the 2nd-lowest YPC (3.2) and just 1.35 yards before contact per attempt despite getting a very favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2.

    • I'd look to sell high on Williams if you can before the reality of a WR-less offense in LA hits, possibly using Williams as bait to move up for a high-RB1 (i.e. Bijan Robinson).

  3. De'Von Achane (RB - Miami Dolphins)

    • A very similar reasoning to Kyren (see above) - I simply don't trust the offense in Miami given the uncertainty of when (or even if) Tua Tagovailoa will return this season.

    • We know what Achane can bring when he's on the field (he's the RB2 in points thus far) and we've already seen him in a more expanded role than last year, but the big question remains how long can he stay on the field, especially if the offense is going to have to lean more on him and Mostert int he running game with the absence of Tua.

    • If it were just that, I wouldn't be anxious to see what you can get for him, but you're also dealing with him coming off a rather inflated workload last week in Mostert's absence, plus the fact that Achane is already dealing with his own ailments this season (ankle).

    • There are just too many unknowns for me to be confident in Achane as my RB1 long-term for 2024. He may end up being a top-5 RB in PPR scoring come season's end (and it wouldn't surprise me) but I would much rather take my chances with a back like Bijan, Kamara, Barkley, Gibbs, etc. that you know what you're getting out of them (very comparable, if not more production than Achane) and you know that there's stability within their respective offenses.

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