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Week 4 Trade Targets & Trade Bait


Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.


And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get.


For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you. These are my favorite players to target and my favorite players to shop as their current value and future value don't necessarily align due to easy matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc.


Top Trade Targets/Buy-Low Candidates This Week:
  1. Jameson Williams (WR - Detroit Lions)

    • After back-to-back 14+ point games to start the season, Williams seems to be a buy-low opportunity after a very poor Week 3, garnering just 3 targets and 1 catch for 9 yards against the Cardinals. That comes after 5+ catch games in each of the first two weeks where he amassed 20 targets.

    • He's garnered 5 redzone targets - something we didn't really expect coming into this season, but clearly an emphasis in the Lions' offensive scheme - and he's yet to score on any of them. With LaPorta now injured (ankle) in the short-term, Williams very easily should bounce back to WR2/FLEX-level production and remains a potential top-12 WR on any given week due to his big play ability and absurd 6th-most air yards on the season.

    • Worth an investment as a low-WR2/excellent FLEX - just be sure to position your pitch as he's reverted back to his inconsistencies of the past (hint: he really hasn't).

  2. Brock Bowers (TE - Las Vegas Raiders)

    • Bowers has been the lone source of consistency in a terrible TE position this year, tallying 40+ yards and 7+ points in each of the first three games of his career. Perhaps just as notable is the fact that he hasn't found the endzone yet but has tallied that level of production and multiple top-3 finishes.

    • He's producing at a top-5 level already and has a lot left to be desired in terms of TD production, especially if Davante Adams were to be traded mid-season. Now is likely he final opportunity to trade for him at any reasonable price coming off a "down" game of only 7.1 points.

  3. Anthony Richardson (QB - Indianapolis Colts)

    • After a stellar season opener as a top-4 fantasy QB, Richardson has struggled, failing to eclipse 10+ points in either of his last two games while he totaled 371 yards, 1 TD, and 5 INT via the air and just 61 yards on the ground - none of which being numbers we'd come to expect from Richardson.

    • Everything is going against Richardson right now:

      1. 49.3% Completion Percentage

      2. He's been stopped at the goal line multiple times

      3. Indy is 32nd in the NFL in plays and time of possession

      4. He's faced a bottom-10 SOS to date

    • We've seen his potential even without substantial passing volume (see Week 1) and we've seen his absolute floor as a low-QB2 the past two weeks. Now's the perfect chance to buy low on a likely mid-to-low QB1 with weekly elite-QB1 potential at a likely QB2 price tag.

 
Low-Cost Targets/Stashes:
  • Jonathon Brooks (RB - Carolina Panthers)

    • We've seen the potential within the Panthers' backfield with Chuba Hubbard ranking as a top-24 RB in back-to-back weeks (including a 28-point performance this past week), plus having drawn the 9th-most carries (238) and the 11th-most touches (277) in 2023.

    • With Brooks set to return in the next 2-4 weeks, he will likely ease into the lead duties, but once he fully supplants Hubbard as the RB1, Brooks should be a weekly RB2 option. Now's the last opportunity before rumblings of his impending return off the NFI List to get a sizeable discount on him at RB3/4 trade capital.

  • Ladd McConkey (WR - Los Angeles Chargers)

    • McConkey's not a flashy player in reality, standing at just 6'0", 185 lbs, or in fantasy, tallying a steady 17 targets over his first 3 career games, but his 26% target share stands 15th in the NFL, even this early into his NFL career.

    • It won't be long before that target share becomes a strong PPR baseline as the Chargers can't expect to maintain their mere 22 passing attempts per game and remain competitive, seeing as they had drawn Las Vegas, Carolina, and Pittsburgh in their opening three games - all subpar offenses.

    • McConkey projects as a very low-cost, but PPR-friendly depth option, likely to cost pennies on the dollar as a WR4/5 option, but is likely to far exceed that value throughout the season, especially later in the year.

 
Top Trade Bait/Sell-High Candidates This Week:
  1. Chuba Hubbard (RB - Carolina Panthers)

    • Week 3 was an uncharacteristically amazing game for the Panthers' offense and for RB Chubba Hubbard, who had a career day with 21 carries for 114 yards plus another 55 and a TD via 5 catches (on 5 targets), amounting to a career-best 28-point performance on the week.

    • While I expect the Panthers' offense to be better under Dalton than in Bryce Young's first two weeks, one shouldn't expect anything close to the 36-point offensive explosion from Carolina on a weekly basis. That in itself would've been enough for a sell-high moment for Hubbard, but factor in Young is expected to reclaim the starting spot in the coming weeks, plus RB Jonathon Brooks will likely come off the NFI List within a month, Hubbard is a must-sell after his big Week 3.

    • See if you can get an RB2/FLEX-level return - if not, settle for RB3 value.

  2. Kyle Pitts (TE - Atlanta Falcons)

    • I was all-in on Pitts this offseason with the expectation that a change at QB, going from a wildly inaccurate QB situation of years past to a solidified one with Kirk Cousins under center, would now solve the underwhelming production from Pitts, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

    • He's not the 2nd target in the passing game that everyone anticipated, and he's not even the 3rd either - he currently sits tied with Bijan Robinson for 4th/5th on the Falcons in targets with Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud surprisingly having sizeable roles in the Atlanta offense.

    • Pitts currently sits as the TE10 on the year but it's been far from pretty, tallying just 8 catches. He's gotten a vast majority all of his production on two plays: a 12-yard TD in Week 1 and a 50-yard catch in Week 3. That comes even with what was a golden opportunity on paper in Week 3 against a Chiefs defense that had been torched in the prior two weeks by athletic TEs.

    • My confidence is running thin on Pitts' ability to live up to his ADP expectation of being a top-6 TE, especially with the relative lack of volume and trust from Kirk Cousins. I'm not at a point of desperation with him, but I certainly would try and see if you can flip him for another underperforming highly-drafted TE (i.e. Kincaid, Andrews, Kelce, LaPorta, etc.) even if it means throwing in a bench piece to make it happen.

  3. DK Metcalf (WR - Seattle Seahawks)

    • I was very high on Metcalf and the entire Seahawks' offense entering the season in OC Ryan Grubb's scheme, and while I'm still high on them, I am growing worrisome as to sustainability for Metcalf.

    • He's been excellent in totality through three weeks, ranking as the WR7 in fantasy with 17 catches for 262 yards and 2 TDs, finishing as a top-12 WR each of the last two weeks. However, a majority of his production each of the last two weeks has come as a product of long TDs, scoring a 56-yard TD in Week 2 and a 71-yarder in Week 3, accounting for over 54% of his points in those two games. That's nice to have in the interim, but not something that's sustainable long-term.

    • My concern lies with how reliant Metcalf seemingly will be on the big play for WR1-level production, especially with potential inconsistencies in volume as we've already seen (4 targets, 14 targets, 6 targets) and with the offense to likely be a bit more run-oriented once Kenneth Walker (oblique) returns.

    • I'm not saying to sell Metcalf for pennies on the dollar by any means, but I would put out some feelers to see how strong the trade market is for him in your league. A return of someone like Rashee Rice, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ja'Marr Chase, or a WR1-level equivalent (either at WR or comparable RB value) would be preferred over the likely boom-or-bust nature for Metcalf.

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