Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.
And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get.
For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you. These are my favorite players to target and my favorite players to shop as their current value and future value don't necessarily align due to easy matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc.
Top Trade Targets/Buy-Low Candidates This Week:
Amari Cooper (WR - Cleveland Browns)
Cooper's been very hit-or-miss so far this season, drawing an incredible 37 targets (6th in the NFL) but has been able to bring in just 16 of them for catches. Part of that has been sub-par QB play, part of that has been an uncharacteristically high number of drops. So far in 2024, he has dropped 6 passes - for reference last year he had 7 drops and he's had over 7 drops just once in his entire career (2022). At a 16.2% drop rate (highest in the NFL), we can expect a correction to a more reasonable number given his career rate of just 5.6%.
Now, the first two weeks were just bad, especially when it came to the drops, tallying just 5 catches on 17 targets for 27 yards. The last two weeks have been better, posting a 7-86-2 performance in Week 3 and a 4-35-0 performance that ultimately should've featured an 82-yard TD that was called back on a questionable penalty, which would've completely altered his day and the narrative around him.
To summarize his situation:
Struggled with drops, which should correct themselves
Called back massive play, creating an 'underproduction' game
Easiest statistical matchup (at WAS) this week
2nd-easiest SOS among WRs over the next 4 games
Likely significant improvement to the offense with the return of Nick Chubb
Potential to be traded (i.e. Kansas City) due to his contract structure
I'd be willing to bet this is the lowest his price will be all season and am all-in on trying to trade for him at a fringe WR2/WR3/FLEX price tag.
Bijan Robinson (RB - Atlanta Falcons)
Let's get something straight: Bijan has not been bad to start the 2024 season. Now, he hasn't lived up to the 1st Round price tag everyone paid for him on draft day, but he's been stable, posting 11+ points in every game so far this season.
That comes even despite having just 1 TD and 2 touches at the goal-line (inside the 5) on the year in large part because the Falcons' offense has run just 29 offensive plays in the redzone (6th-fewest) and 13 plays inside the 10-yard line (5th-fewest); one of which was a 19-yard receiving TD for Bijan called back on penalty this past week, which would've drastically changed the narrative of his game.
To have made matters harder for him, Bijan and the Falcons faced the single-hardest SOS among RBs to open up the season (which allowed 20% fewer PPG to RBs than the league average), including matchups against Pittsburgh (2nd-fewest PPG), Philadelphia (13th-fewest), Kansas City (fewest), and New Orleans (12th-fewest). It gets a LOT easier for him going forward, drawing the 2nd-easiest SOS over the next 4 games, the 5th-easiest remaining schedule, and the 11th-easiest playoff schedule (not to look ahead too far).
Now is the perfect time to make a pitch to a Bijan owner who may be a bit underwhelmed with their 1st round pick's production, offering up an RB2 plus additional capital to make a potential 'home run swing' on what should be an elite-RB1 down the stretch.
Tyreek Hill (WR - Miami Dolphins)
It has been ugly for Tyreek Hill and the entire Dolphins' offense ever since QB Tua Tagovailoa left Week 2 with another concussion, forcing Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley to take the reins as the starting QBs in Week 3 and 4 respectively.
In the two games without Tua, he's tallied 7 catches on 12 targets for 63 yards and 0 TDs, adding another 19 yards on the ground - a mere 15.2 total points (a figure he eclipsed in 11 individual games in 2023). That comes as a result of the Dolphins' offense tallying just 389 yards of total offense and 218 yards via the passing game.
The good news: Tua Tagovailoa is reportedly "symptom-free" and may be returning once eligible to return from IR.
It sounds like Tua is anticipated to return to the field in Week 8, making the window very narrow to get a potential top-5 WR for a likely fringe-WR1/WR2 price tag based on a massive slump due to QB play. That's very much the potential to be a league-winning type of steal.
Low-Cost Targets/Stashes:
Mark Andrews (TE - Baltimore Ravens)
It has been a rough start to the season for Mark Andrews (and all of the top TEs) to say the least, continuing that with major disappointments in back-to-back 1-target, 0-catch, 0-point performances for the once elite-TE1 option. There just seems to be something off with Andrews, who has had a few easy catches turned into drops through the first month of the season.
There's not really a reason to be concerned about Isaiah Likely, seeing as he really hasn't seen much work either (6 targets, 3 catches, 56 yards over the last 3 weeks) - it's just been a lack of volume in the Ravens' passing offense with Jackson completing just 25 passes total between the last two games.
Andrews' owners have essentially thrown in the towel on the TE and that's something I'm willing to take a gamble on. I'm not necessarily looking to trade a Freiermuth-type TE for him, but rather trying to see if I can get him for low-end bench RB/WR players.
Worst-case scenario you are dropping him in 3-4 weeks (which would likely be the same case with the assets you're trading for him). The best-case scenario is he rebounds to top-12 (or even borderline top-5) relevancy, which seems the more likely scenario given Lamar Jackson's historical tendencies.
Isiah Pacheco (RB - Kansas City Chiefs)
The Chiefs' offense is in shambles right now... No Rashee Rice. No Marquise Brown. Patrick Mahomes is struggling. Travis Kelce looking his age. We saw Pacheco serve the role of a workhorse back to open up the season, taking on 34 carries and 41 touches through the first two weeks of the season, and it's quite likely he will exceed that utilization later in the season when he returns from IR.
We're now 2 weeks into a 6-8 week timeframe for his return from a broken fibula, an injury that likely won't hinder him once he's back on the field, placing his likely return somewhere between Week 9 and Week 11.
If you have been relatively unscathed by injuries and are sitting in a fairly comfortable spot (i.e. 3-1 or better), now's the perfect opportunity to get what should be a mid-RB1 for a MAJOR discount. It's still far enough away that the price for him will be rather limited, but it's still close enough (especially with bye weeks beginning) that you're not sitting on a useless asset for the majority of the season.
Top Trade Bait/Sell-High Candidates This Week:
Patrick Mahomes (QB - Kansas City Chiefs)
Putting it simply, Mahomes is only worth the name value for fantasy. He's struggled mightily to start the season, failing to hit 17+ points or a top-12 finish in any game so far in 2024, which is only compounding onto a poor end to 2023 where he hadn't finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in a game since Week 12 last year.
And it only gets worse... Mahomes managed to throw an interception and tear WR Rashee Rice's ACL on the same play. It's not getting any better for Mahomes outside of a major trade. I'd strongly recommend trying to get what you can out of Mahomes' name value on the trade market. We're at the moment where I'd take a mid-to-low QB1 for Mahomes, which is unfortunate given the expectations entering the season.
Jordan Addison (WR - Minnesota Vikings)
Addison returned from a multi-week absence to an ankle injury in huge fashion, catching 3 of 4 targets for 72 yards and a TD, plus adding another 7 yards and a score via the ground en route to a 23-point, top-10 finish in Week 4. We had seen this 'boom' potential multiple times in 2023, especially in the TD department with the then-rookie scoring 10 TDs.
I have three reasons for concern for Addison:
1. How long can Sam Darnold keep up MVP-level play? We've seen him produce at an elite level for stretches before in his career (i.e. first month in Carolina), but is this just a flash in the pan or is the coaching scheme truly making that big of a difference?
2. The big-play/TD Dependency issue - he's a deep ball threat on any given play, which is a major positive when it hits, but it can make him unpredictable. He also has major production issues when failing to score a TD, averaging over 20.3 PPG when he finds the endzone and just 6.8 PPG when he doesn't (including 10+ points in just 3 of 10 games without a TD) - again, good when it hits, but very unpredictable.
3. The impending return of TE T.J. Hockenson off the PUP List creates concern over consistency in target volume. We briefly saw Addison work as the 3rd receiving threat in Minnesota's offense last year: he was the WR52 in targets, the WR49 in catches, the WR45 in yards, the WR44 in fantasy points, and the WR71 in target share (13.1%).
If it were just one of these factors, I would be comfortable keeping Addison, but the combination of them makes me a bit weary of his long-term outlook. I'd take feelers to see if you can get more than his actual worth (it's very likely you can) after a massive first game back into the lineup, looking to get WR2/FLEX value.
D'Andre Swift (RB - Chicago Bears)
I don't think I'll need to go too in-depth into this one. Not even a week ago, talks were of D'Andre Swift being supplanted as the lead back in Chicago with Roschon Johnson expected to take on more of a role.
Swift responded with the best fantasy performance of his career, tallying 93 yards and a TD on 16 carries with another 72 yards coming on 7 catches (7 targets) in a 29.5-point outing. We've seen this kind of boom performance from him in the past (11 career 20+ point games), almost always followed by a down performance.
Given his early-season inefficiencies behind a struggling Bears' O-Line (1.84 YPC prior to Week 4, 3.0 YPC through Week 4), it seems to be that his monster performance last week was more a product of a very friendly matchup (as the Rams have allowed the most rushing yards, the 3rd-most TDs, and over 4.8 YPC to opposing RBs this season) than an indicator of things to come.
I'm seeing what I can get for Swift after that big game, ideally cashing in on what seems to be an outlier performance.
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