Matchups to Target:
Drake London vs. Commanders
Commanders: allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this season
London: 23% target share, 30% air yards share since week 2; looks like they finally figured out that using their best perimeter receiver will help them win games
He’s also had 100% of the Falcons’ end zone targets over the past three weeks - four targets and just one touchdown to show for it
Zay Flowers vs. Tennessee
Tennessee: top-12 in fantasy points allowed to slot and perimeter wide receivers; allowing the 7th-most fantasy points overall
Flowers: 100% route participation - he’s not coming off the field. His 28% target share is also highest on the team, ahead of Mark Andrews (20% through four games)
Flowers runs his routes all over the field - 27+% of routes at each position: left, right, and slot. He’ll be able to take advantage of a very beatable secondary
D.J. Moore vs Minnesota
Minnesota: allowing the 8th most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers, 4th most fantasy points overall
Moore: runs 83% of his routes on the perimeter, but should be able to win anywhere against this defense; 38% target share and 55% air yards share for Moore has evidently been the key to turning the Bears’s offense around - huh, who would have thought that using the player you traded for would be a good idea?
I think I’m willing to buy that D.J. Moore and Justin Fields can keep this kind of production up for the next few weeks, and that’s going to make them fantasy stars. Fields is also averaging 9.6 yards per attempt in the past two games vs just 6 per attempt in the first three.
Matchups to Avoid:
Marquise Brown vs. LAR
Rams: allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this season, but have been gashed in the slot - allowing 4th most fantasy points there
Brown: runs 80% of his routes from the perimeter; he’s had three touchdowns in the past four games, and a 10 target game in the one where he didn’t score. He’s been pretty reliable, but it’ll be a tough matchup this week.
Rams are 7 point favorites in this one, and that probably has a lot to do with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Cardinals could be in a position to pass a lot, especially with James Conner out of the lineup.
Not worried about Brown despite the matchup. He should be able to continue putting up his signature 16 points per game.
Nico Collins vs. NO
Collins: bonafide perimeter wide receiver coming off a quiet week, and it could be more of the same this week. Saints are allowing 5th-least fantasy points to the perimeter receivers; Collins runs 82% of his routes from the outside
In a similarly tough matchup last week against the Falcons, Collins and the Texans passing offense had trouble getting things going. Collins was targeted just four times
He’ll be lining up against Marshon Lattimore, which is a less than ideal matchup. Tank Dell will be out, but he missed a lot of the game last week and Collins still wasn’t able to capitalize
Josh Downs vs. JAX
Downs: has been a favorite target of Gardner Minshew’s - in two of his starts this season (Weeks 3 and 5) - 26% target share, 25% air yards share, and two top 30 performances
HOWEVER: Jacksonville has been locking down the slot, which is where Downs is running essentially all of his routes from. The Jags are allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to slot receivers, which isn’t THAT big of a deal…
But they’re also very vulnerable on the outside, and that’s Michael Pittman’s wheel house. Jacksonville is allowing the 7th most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers, and Pittman runs over 70% of his routes on the outside. There’s a chance that Minshew makes it a Pittman day on Sunday.