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Writer's pictureTyler Alexander

Week 6 Trade Targets & Trade Bait


Trading is the quickest way to take your team from sitting on the bubble of a playoff berth to a championship contender, or vice-versa if you make the wrong deal, which is why it is so important to make sure you are targeting (and selling) the right players at the right time.


And yes - every player has a price. It doesn't matter whether they are the best player in fantasy football or a dwindling kicker - every player has a price that they should be traded away for or should have something given up to get.


For people in leagues that are more active in trading, this is for you. These are my favorite players to target and my favorite players to shop as their current value and future value don't necessarily align due to easy matchups, surrounding injuries, improving/changing scenarios, etc.


Top Trade Targets/Buy-Low Candidates This Week:
  1. Terry McLaurin (WR - Washington Commanders)

    • We now have 5 games of sample size on the Jayden Daniels-Terry McLaurin connection and it is amazing. The first two weeks were rough with McLaurin as the WR65 and averaging just 4.9 yards per reception. The last three have been spectacular, though, with McLaurin as the WR12 and averaging a more realistic 17.6 yards per reception.

    • The volume appears stable with 4+ targets in each game, 6+ targets in all but one, and a 28.4% target share over his last 3 games, but the efficiency is now there with an aDOT of 17.7 over the last three weeks (3rd among players with 10+ targets).

    • Week 5 presented a perfect buy-low opportunity after a 'down' game of just 13.4 points where he was pulled after 3 quarters (and involved limitedly before that) due to a blow-out, lost a fumble, and had nearly had a deep TD if not for a shoe-string tackle.

    • With that as his "down" game and a favorable schedule the rest of the way (especially in the fantasy playoffs), McLaurin is the perfect WR2 option with realistic top-12 potential likely going for a mid-to-low WR2 price tag.

  2. Bijan Robinson (RB - Atlanta Falcons)

    • I've been beating this drum the last few weeks and I will keep beating it (with a little different twist) this week.

    • Bijan has been decent, but not great this season. He's posted 10+ points and 50+ yards in each game this season - the issue is he's not finding the endzone right now. That has not been his fault, but rather an abnormality from the Falcons' offense, which has run just 3.2 plays per game inside the opposing 10-yard line (3rd-fewest), 9.4 plays per game in the redzone (5th-fewest), and just 6 total plays on the season inside the 5 (4th-fewest) despite being 8th in the NFL in yardage and in the top-half in scoring.

    • That will naturally correct itself over the course of a full season, but what really stands out is the disparity in schedule. The Falcons have faced the single-hardest SOS among RBs through the first five weeks of the season, including not a single above-average matchup. Looking forward? The Falcons now draw the 2nd-easiest SOS over the next month and the 4th-easiest SOS over the rest of the season.

    • Now past the injuries he had dealt with the past two weeks and the horrific part of the schedule, Bijan looks primed to return to his elite-RB1 self, making now the perfect time to buy low after a 'down' 10-point game and owners likely being a bit frustrated with their 1st round pick.

  3. Dalton Kincaid (TE - Buffalo Bills)

    • Kincaid has been decent, but nothing spectacular through 5 games in an otherwise horrific TE position this season, tallying a team-high 24 targets and bringing in 15 of them for 166 yards and a TD as the TE12 thus far.

    • The volume has been decent, registering 4+ targets each of his last 4 games and 5+ targets in each of his last three, but the Bills' passing offense has failed to click much especially over the last two weeks with Josh Allen going just 25/59 for 311 yards and 1 TD in that stretch. Kincaid still managed 5+ points in each of those games, but it presents a buy-low opportunity as the passing attack should correct itself throughout the season.

    • He may not live up to the top-5 expectation many were anticipating coming into the season, but Kincaid looks to be one of very few TEs that have a significant target share in their offense and have been able to turn out at least somewhat consistent production.

    • I'd see if you can pitch a TE that's been hot as of late (i.e. Tucker Kraft, Cole Kmet) as a 1-for-1 or even with a depth bench player thrown in, or possibly going the route of a fair bench player for Kincaid - I believe he is one of the best values on the trade market at TE and should rebound as Josh Allen does.

 
Low-Cost Targets/Stashes:
  1. T.J. Hockenson (TE - Minnesota Vikings)

    • Welcome back, T.J. Hockenson!

    • After over 9 months since his Week 16 ACL tear, we're finally nearing the return of T.J. Hockenson, who, prior to his injury last season, was the overall TE1 in fantasy with 9+ points in all but one game in 2023. It sounds like there is a 50/50 chance Hockenson will be active following the Vikings' Week 6 bye after having his 21-day practice window opened last Friday.

    • It's pretty unlikely we see Hockenson immediately jump back to his former high/elite-TE1 self given the nature of his injury, but the success of the Vikings' offense sans-Hockenson gives a lot of optimism about drawing less attention from opposing defenses in 2023.

    • Right now, during the bye, is the last opportunity to get him at any sort of realistic discount. I'd be willing to give up a low-end TE1 (i.e. Kraft) or TE2 (i.e. Kmet) plus additional capital to make a move for Hock, seeing as he has perennially been a top-10 TE and should continue that general level of production shortly after returning from the PUP List.

  2. Tua Tagovailoa (QB - Miami Dolphins)

    • Everything that has been reported indicates that Tua will be returning once first eligible to come off IR in Week 8. The Dolphins' QB exited mid-way through the team's Week 2 matchup with the Bills after a top-10 finish in Week 1 and a top-10 finish in 2023.

    • We know what Tua brings when he's on the field - pretty decent fantasy production with rather frequent 'boom' games in an explosive Dolphins offense. Right now he's owned in just 46% of leagues, so he may even be available on waivers in your league, but if not, I'd strongly recommend throwing a bench player at the Tua owner for him.

    • He's a very low-risk investment, especially with him still on IR and the Dolphins heading into their bye, but he offers very realistic top-12 upside for the remainder of the 2024 season.

 
Top Trade Bait/Sell-High Candidates This Week:
  1. Brian Robinson Jr. (RB - Washington Commanders)

    • Through the first five weeks of the season, Robinson stands as the RB9 in fantasy with 10+ points and a top-25 finish in each of those five games. The only downside to that is a very large portion of his production is coming off TDs, which are unlikely to be sustainable at his current rate (or at the very least aren't safe on a week-to-week basis).

    • With 5 TDs in as many games, Brian Robinson owners are likely ecstatic at their mid-to-late round investment, but with 39% of his fantasy points coming from TDs, it's not something that should be counted on to continue at the rate that he has produced. That's heightened by Jeremy McNichols being very efficient in his work and the return of Austin Ekeler, which raises a bit of concern with how he only received 7 touches in what was a blowout win against the Browns this past week.

    • I'm not saying to sell for pennies by any means, but I'd be looking to try and flip him for a low-end RB1/high-RB2 (or an equivalent value at WR), or perhaps pair him with a bench player to go for a more stable (and underperforming) RB1 option (i.e. Bijan Robinson).

  2. Josh Downs (WR - Indianapolis Colts)

    • Believe me, I would love to be able to trust Downs going forward. His 26 targets (14th), 20 catches (5th), 173 yards, 2 TDs, and 43.3 fantasy points (WR22) over his three games this season are exceptional coming off the waiver wire, but a reality check will likely be in store next week.

    • It's not due to unsustainable production from Downs - everything from efficiency to target share shows it's sustainable - the issue is going from Joe Flacco to Anthony Richardson, a change that reflects a move from a volume-based offense to a chunk-play one in the passing attack.

    • That likely spells the end for Downs as a WR2/FLEX option. In leagues that I have him on my roster, I'm actively shopping him and would recommend you do the same - you can likely get low-WR3/WR4 value for him right now.

  3. Jerome Ford (RB - Cleveland Browns)

    • The 2023-type workload for Jerome Ford didn't last very long with the Browns having given Ford over 10 carries just once through the first five weeks of the season. Granted, part of that was due to the Browns pretty routinely playing from behind, but Week 5 also featured D'Onta Foreman matching Ford on carries in a true time split.

    • Now enter Nick Chubb, who had his 21-day practice window opened up last Wednesday and sees a likely return within the next week or two. The days of Jerome Ford being an early-season workhorse RB appear to be that of the past with him being a 1B in a 1A/1B situation as the best-case scenario going forward.

    • Throw in the additional factor that the Browns have already played the easiest portion of their schedule on paper for RBs, having faced the 4th-easiest SOS among RBs to date this season, plus the horrific upcoming schedule (5th-hardest SOS over the next 4, single-hardest SOS the remainder of the season) and the outlook is bleak for Ford.

    • The 7+ points in each game this season should likely give some bit of a trade market for Ford, especially from the Chubb owner. I'd see if I can get FLEX value for him if you still can.

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