Rookie WRs are an easy way to end up a contender for either the championship or a bottom feeder. Having a strong rookie WR in your lineup can be a season-altering option for the good - just ask those who had Puka Nacua last year, Ja'Marr Chase in 2021, or Justin Jefferson in 2020. However, just as notably, having a rookie WR that fails to live up to the hype can crush your chances at a championship - look at Henry Ruggs in 2020, Terrace Marshall in 2021, Skyy Moore in 2022, or Quentin Johnston in 2023.
It's important to know what to look for (and what to be concerned with) when looking for rookie WRs to target on draft day, so here is my breakdown on how to navigate the rookie WRs in 2024:
Playing the Game
First of all, you have to decide if it's even worth your while to try for rookie WRs of any significance. There's always a rookie WR or two that comes along off the waiver wire at some point in the season and makes an impact (i.e. Puka Nacua, Christian Watson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chase Claypool, Hunter Renfrow). You can play that game and hope you're the one to pick him out off waivers, or you can play the game of trying for a more highly-touted one via your draft.
Over the last 10 years, we've had 35 rookies finish as a WR3 or better; 30 of those were drafted in the 2 rounds of the NFL Draft, so we're going to narrow our focus there (let's be realistic, the odds of there being another Puka Nacua are slim-to-none, much less the odds of being the one to pick him up at the rise of his emergence).
Of every WR taken in the first 2 rounds of the NFL Draft over the last 10 years (excluding those that did not play their rookie year), you're still looking at just 33% that ended as a WR3 or better in points and just 30% that were a WR3 or better in PPG as a rookie. There are substantially better odds that any given 1st or 2nd round WR will finish as a non-factor in fantasy (53% as a WR6 or worse) than they will finish with a meaningful impact as a rookie.
Be very mindful of the odds and be careful of who you choose.
The Situation is More Important than the Player (Most of the Time)
Being picked in the 1st round (or even better, early on in the 1st round) is great for the players regarding contracts but doesn't guarantee production, especially as a rookie. It may sound like common sense, but the easiest way for a player to produce is to be on the field. That brings us to one of the biggest indicators of rookie WR success: Snap Share.
Rookies that are on the field, get the opportunity. Rookies that get the opportunity, produce (most of the time).
Of rookie WRs that play at least 50% of their team's offensive snaps, over 44% of them finish as a WR3 or better. When just looking at the notable rookies (1st/2nd rounders), that jumps to 57% as WR3s or better.
When you narrow it down to those that play >60% of the snaps, over 53% are WR3s or better, and 69% of them are WR3s or better when you limit that to 1st/2nd rounders. When you look at just the 1st rounders in that situation: 81% of rookie WRs with over a 60% snap share end up a WR3 or better.
When you start looking at the depth charts, it really narrows it down on who has a realistic chance at being an impactful fantasy option as a rookie. Unfortunately, it likely means some of the players in deep WR rooms may not be as solid of choices as anticipated on the surface.
Elite Talent Rises to the Top
You know what I said in the last section? Yeah, that's for most players, not necessarily for the elite players. With elite talent, coaches make it a point to make them a focal point (or at the very least a notable aspect) of the offense. This is where you get into the players that will either make you a true contender or blow up your season.
44% of 1st round rookies finish as a top-36 WR and just over a quarter (27%) finish as WR2s or better.
Of the truly elite rookies (top-10 picks), 75% of them finish as a top-36 WR and just over 41% as a WR2 or better. Exclude Kevin White (4 GP as a rookie) and that jumps to 82% as WR3s (or better) and 46% as WR2s or better.
And for my favorite stat - 1st round rookie WRs with > 60% snap share: 52% as WR2s (or better), 81% as WR3s (or better), and just two "misses" (outside top 48) in the last 10 years (Quentin Johnston, Will Fuller).
Who to Fits the Model:
I know that was a lot of numbers thrown all over the place. Here's the summary: rookie WRs are a gamble, but opportunity, and especially opportunity combined with talent create league-winners.
With that said, the rookie WRs that are truly positioned to succeed:
Marvin Harrison Jr. - As the top WR taken in the 2024 NFL Draft (and son of Colts' legend Marvin Harrison), the expectations are already for the rookie out of Ohio State. It's going to be difficult for him to provide a return on his draft price (currently the WR9, 2.04 on ADP) but he's by far the most likely to end up a league-winner, especially seeing QB Kyler Murray tends to force-feed the ball to a select 1-2 targets.
Malik Nabers - Plain and simple: Nabers is the Giants' offense. The Giants have nothing of significance around him at WR, TE, or RB. Nabers stands out to me as the most likely boom-or-bust among the rookies due to that. At WR24/5.04 on ADP, I'm hesitant to take him as my WR2 but ecstatic with him as my WR3 as he's likely to hit a 25% target share at a minimum but will get substantial defensive attention.
Rome Odunze - Of the 'big three' rookies taken in the top 10, Odunze stands out as the best value going as the WR45 off the board in the 9th round on ADP. For a player who appears shooed into getting a sizable workload as the definitive number 3 in the Bears' WR room, he checks the boxes of a target for value, opportunity, and talent.
Brian Thomas - Thomas is right there with Odunze in the middle rounds (11th round, WR49 ADP) and like Odunze, should be firmly planted as a top-3 WR on his team. I'm slightly more confident in Thomas getting workload than Odunze but less confident in the efficiency given the surrounding weapons. I have no issues looking at Thomas as a depth WR option given the upside.
Xavier Worthy - I'm conflicted on the 2024 NFL Combine's star. The situation could be amazing with the likely suspension of Rashee Rice and the potential Week 1 start with Patrick Mahomes at QB. On the other hand, we rarely see these types of combine stars pan out. The price tag of an 8th/9th rounder (WR41) on ADP is a bit interesting and a bit rich for me, but should he drop a round or two beyond that, I'd be all over Worthy's upside.
Keon Coleman - Sometimes a lack of competition pushes rookies upwards on the depth chart. That's the case here with Coleman, who has virtually no competition for targets at WR (Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir) with an elite QB (Josh Allen). He may not be Allen's go-to early in the season (Kincaid) but I am anticipating Coleman emerges later in the year. At his price in the 9th right along Odunze, I'm all game on Coleman.
Ladd McConkey - McConkey is in a similar situation to Coleman/Thomas in the sense that he also faces little competition for targets (DJ Chark, Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston) but from a slightly more appealing position as the slot WR for Justin Herbert (who has HEAVILY target Keenan Allen in the past). On the edge of the 8th/9th round, I love McConkey as a WR4 with realistic top-20 potential as a PPR gem.
Ja'Lynn Polk - Here's one for the deeper leagues. Polk's been tearing up camp and has pushed himself to the spot of being a borderline starter. The Patriots don't have top-end talent but they do have tons of options at WR (KJ Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, DeMario Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thorton) so the opportunity is there for him to carve out the WR1 role but also just as likely be lost in a timeshare among the other WRs. I like him in deeper leagues more as a 'stash and see'
Roman Wilson* - Wilson is one of the few players beyond the first two rounds with a realistic path to immediate work, barring injury. Pittsburgh doesn't have much at WR beyond Pickens, leaving Wilson to contend with Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin III, and Quez Watkins for the WR2 role. Even if he isn't the "WR2", it's likely Wilson serves as the slot WR in Pittsburgh and could easily hit that desired 60% snap share on the year. He's not a priority or necessarily a target in anything besides deeper leagues, but one I really like as a mid-to-late season emergence. Of course, this is all assuming Pittsburgh doesn't acquire a WR like Brandon Aiyuk (hence the *).
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