Typically we get the starters for a large portion of the first half in most games in the 2nd week of the preseason as a sort of 'dress rehearsal' - unfortunately this year that didn't seem to be the case with only a select few teams fully playing their starters and even fewer playing their true star players. Let's recap what we truly learned (and what not to get overwhelmed by) from this week's games:
Caleb Williams & Jayden Daniels Continue Their Rookie Preseason Success
The two rookies atop the 2024 Draft Class showed flashes last week of why they were drafted so highly and why they are being drafted as top-10 players among the position in fantasy. Both of them continued that narrative into the second week of the preseason:
Caleb Williams and the Bears' offense struggled early, going 3-and-out on three consecutive drives to open the game, but ultimately still put out a respectable 75 yards (6/13) via the air plus 7 yards and TD on the ground as he rebounded in the second quarter. The stat line didn't do Williams justice, who had a 40+ yard deep ball negated to defensive pass interference and another incredible across-the-body pass to fellow rookie Rome Odunze, a play very few pros make look as routine as he did.
Last week it was Williams with the consistency and Daniels with the flashy, but inconsistent overall play, but this week it was in reverse. Jayden Daniels followed up a flashy week 1 with a stable 10/12 for 78 yards and 2 carries for 13 yards against the Dolphins. It wasn't the flashy stat-line that he had last week but this is the more reassuring result for his fantasy outlook. We know Daniels has the potential with the deep ball and we know he has the ability to produce on the ground, this week showed he has the ability to be stable at the NFL level in the short-to-intermediate game. He's locked in as a top-12 (and likely top-10) fantasy QB for me this year.
Pittsburgh's Offensive Struggles Continue In Russell Wilson's Steelers' Debut
I had the unfortunate honor to watch the Steelers' offense in person from Acrisure Stadium for the second consecutive week and trust me, it was just as ugly in person as it was on TV.
Russell Wilson got his first action as a Steeler after sitting out the team's preseason opener last week due to Calf issues, but the veteran struggled to get the offense moving despite going 8/10 for 47 yards. Granted his struggles were in large part due to the offensive line (3 sacks) that was missing starting rookie Troy Fautanu, forcing Broderick Jones to move to RT, but the lack of overall offensive production was concerning amidst a tight QB competition.
The other QB in that competition is Justin Fields, who looked decent last week and looked similar this week, going 11/17 for 92 yards via the air and tallying 42 yards on 8 runs via the ground. He's reportedly been the better QB in camp and that has been the case so far through the preseason, giving the Steelers' offense some resemblance of energy.
Head Coach Mike Tomlin hasn't given any indication on who the starter will be in Week 1 yet, which could heavily impact the fantasy values of the supporting cast in Pittsburgh. Also of note in Pittsburgh: RB Jaylen Warren suffered a hamstring injury this weekend - initial reports suggest he could miss a "few weeks", putting his availability for the season opener (and likely the first 2-3 weeks) in question.
Xavier Worthy Shines Alongside Chiefs' Starters
With Rashee Rice presumably going to be suspended to start the season and the multi-week injury to Marquise Brown in the preseason opener, all eyes were on 1st Round rookie WR Xavier Worthy and what he would do in a more expanded role with a pretty extensive role expected to open up the season.
It's safe to say Worthy did not disappoint. The rookie got 15/18 snaps and a 33% target share with Mahomes at QB, including a 39-yard deep ball. He then played one more series after Mahomes' exit, registering two more catches and a 22-yard TD, bringing his day to 3 catches, 62 yards, and a TD plus 11 yards on the ground.
His place appears set in stone among the starters and Mahomes looks comfortable with going his way, showing shades of the former Mahomes-Hill connection with the rookie's speed. It's yet to be seen how much time Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice will respectively miss, but Worthy definitely has shown the upside one should be looking for in the middle rounds of your draft.
Daniel Jones Struggles Mightily Against Starters, Malik Nabers Thrives
Inconsistent would've been a severe understatement for Daniel Jones' first game back in action. His first throw should've been intercepted (dropped by Derrick Stingley) and the subsequent two drives ended in Jones throwing interceptions (including a pick-6). He would settle down a little bit, hitting Darius Slayton on a 44-yard pass, ending the day at 11/18 for 138 yards and 2 INTs (1 for 12 on the ground), but the overwhelming majority of viewers were left with a sour taste in the mouth.
Fans weren't left with in disappointment from 1st Round rookie WR Malik Nabers' performance. The rookie had his NFL debut last week but didn't get any targets, but that changed against Houston, seeing 6 targets and bringing in 4 of them for 54 yards, which included a few highlight-reel grabs. The QB situation still remains questionable at best for Nabers, but he very clearly is Jones' favorite option and the volume seemingly should be there to make him a viable WR2 (or better) option for fantasy in 2024.
Jacoby Brissett Struggles, Drake Maye Looks Comfortable As Pats' QB Battle Tightens
It was Jacoby Brissett starting again for the Patriots as they kicked off their second game of the preseason against the Eagles. After going 0/3 in the preseason opener, Brissett was looking to get back on track as the QB competition with rookie Drake Maye has tightened. Unfortunately for Brissett, it was another ugly outing as he went 3/7 for just 17 yards and a crucial INT in the endzone in his 2 series of work.
Drake Maye, on the other hand, looked quite good against Philly, which was really his first preseason action after seeing just one series of work (2/3, 19 yards) in the preseason opener vs Carolina. Maye played four series over the course of the 2nd and 3rd quarter, looking solid, going 6/11 for 47 yards and adding another 15 yards and a TD on 4 carries.
We'll have to wait and see if HC Jerod Mayo is going to let the rookie open up the year as the starter or if he will go with the veteran in Brissett, but at the very least Maye has shown flashes of potential and readiness to at least stabilize the offense for supporting weapons (i.e. Douglas, Stevenson, Henry) in fantasy.
Raiders' Starting QB Determined After Poor Performances From Minshew, O'Connell
Everyone's eyes were on the Raiders' QBs Saturday night as the QB competition between Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew was anticipated to be settled by the better of the two's performances.
A starter was decided, but anyone who was watching was extremely underwhelmed. Gardner Minshew started the game and went 10/21 for 95 yards (0 TDs or INTs), leading the Raiders onto the opposing side of the 50-yard line on three of five drives but ultimately only walking away with one field goal.
Aidan O'Connell then took over and went a more comfortable 14/20 for 96 yards and did find the endzone, but once for each team, hitting TE Harrison Bryant on a 5-yard TD and then following that up with a 69-yard pick-6 the following drive.
The offense seemed to have better rhythm under O'Connell but the Raiders' coaching staff appears to be going the risk-averse route, naming the veteran Gardner Minshew the Weke 1 starter; a move that really doesn't alter much in terms of what to expect from the likes of receivers Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, or Michael Mayer.
Ray Davis' Strong Showing Introduces Doubt of Potential Timeshare in Buffalo
All the Bills' starters played except QB Josh Allen, giving us a pretty good look at the supporting cast's roles.
By no means did James Cook play poorly, taking all of the Bills' RB work among the starters and going for 6 carries and 25 yards (4.2 YPC), but 4th round rookie Ray Davis played exceptionally well in Pittsburgh, drawing 8 carries for an absurd 58 yards and 7.3 YPC. His efficiency was notable at 5'8", 211 lbs and suggests that he could very easily carve out a notable role as a 2nd option to James Cook in Buffalo. At the very least, one would expect he gets some of the short-yardage work and possibly earn a change-of-pace role by the end of the season.
My mind goes to the early days of the Packers' Aaron Jones-AJ Dillon duo when I see James Cook and Ray Davis.
New Week Same Texans' Offense
Last week, the Texans' offense picked right back up where they left off last year. This week, the Texans' offense continued to be in rhythm, even if they didn't find the endzone on 2 series of work (turnover on downs at NYG's 6-yard line).
C.J. Stroud looked his usual self (7/10, 88 yards), targeting each of the 'big 3' receivers (Diggs, Collins, Dell) at least once. Stefon Diggs got the ball twice (11 yards), Nico Collins got the ball once (2 targets) for 24 yards, and Tank Dell got two looks (including a 23-yard catch called back by holding). Dalton Schultz notably got 5 targets (4 on record due to a nullified play to penalty), bringing in 3 for 39 yards.
My takeaway from this is that this will be a very difficult receiving corps to predict on a week-to-week basis - you may see all three of Diggs, Collins, and Dell finish as top-30 WRs in fantasy but it's unlikely any will give you top-10 or possibly even top-15 value due to their likely inconsistencies (unless one becomes injured). I want nothing to do with the Texans' WR corps, but would entertain Schultz as a fringe-TE1 and definitely have C.J. Stroud on my mid-round radar (if he falls to there) given the pure amassment of weapons he has.
Perhaps most notable was the running game, or lack thereof, from Dameon Pierce, who got all of the rushing work with the starters. Pierce took 4 carries for just 5 yards (1.3 YPC), which came after a poor performance last week that saw him tally just 4 yards on 4 carries - something the Texans saw far too often last year (2.9 YPC). Joe Mixon hasn't played in any of the team's preseason games while Pierce has gotten a fair amount of work each of the last two weeks, hinting that there may be an even larger role for Mixon (and conversely, a smaller role for Pierce) than initially anticipated for 2024.
Bo Nix Thrives vs Packers, Possibly Punches Ticket as Week 1 Starter
2024 1st Rounder Bo Nix got the start in the Broncos' second preseason game after ceding Jarrett Stidham in the opener amidst one of the tighter QB competitions this preseason.
He looked very solid in the preseason opener vs the Colts, going 15/21 for 125 yards and a TD (3 for 17 on the ground), and doubled down on that effort with a very strong outing against Green Bay, going 8/9 for 80 yards and a TD (3 for 12 on the ground) plus having a 14-yard TD taken off the board due to a very narrow illegal forward pass call.
We'll wait to hear who will be the Week 1 starter in Denver, but the rookie has certainly done enough to earn that spot.
Saints' Offense Looks Similar to 2023, Features Slight Difference in Taysom Hill Utilization
Through two weeks of the preseason, the Saints' starting offense looks eerily similar to its 2023 counterpart, featuring a highly accurate, but only moderately efficient Derek Carr who almost exclusively goes to Chris Olave or his RB via checkdown. Between these two games, Carr has thrown the ball 14 times - 1 was a throwaway and 9 of the remaining 13 passes were to either Olave or his RB. There's no question Olave will be a high-volume guy once again in 2024.
Something new that we didn't see much in 2023, and didn't see in the preseason opener, was a unique utilization of QB/TE Taysom Hill. Against the 49ers, we saw Hill as the starting tailback and play in the fullback position at points. He got 5 carries for 21 yards and the goal-line work in a 1-yard TD. Hill ended up with 5/12 RB carries with the starters (granted Alvin Kamara sat out). That's definitely noteworthy that he got a sizeable role in the rushing attack AND the goal-line work. I'm not saying that he'll be a league-changer, but the utilization of Hill (plus the passing/QB potential) makes him a very sneaky and very interesting option late in drafts for leagues that have him listed as a TE.
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