Miami’s got a great run scheme, and for fantasy, you want a piece of it - they were 6th in rushing yards, and three of the four teams in the top 6 had some sort of rushing output from their starting QB. As you can probably guess, the Dolphins did not - it was all De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert - and now they added another RB in the mix with Jaylen Wright. They liked him so much that they gave up a 3rd rounder in next year’s draft just to move up into the fourth and grab him. However, given the fact that Mike McDaniel just said that Mostert is still leading that room, I’m expecting this to remain a Mostert/Achane duo for now. I don’t expect this to be a 3-man backfield - RBs just don’t get into any sort of rhythm like that, so a duo makes the most sense.
Now, we’ve seen Achane get hurt last year and he’s a smaller back, and we’ve also seen Mostert get hurt on numerous occasions during his career. Mostert’s 32 years old, by the way, so there’s a decent chance we see Jaylen Wright get some work in some capacity this year. And if he does, I would probably want him in my lineup, even if one of the other backs are healthy and good to go - because I don’t think we see a workhorse game for any of these backs at any point this year.
If you look at these ADPs right now on Underdog, Achane is going off the board as the RB7, Raheem Mostert as the RB28 in the 7th, and Jaylen Wright as the RB47. I think when you look at the roles, Achane is not a workhorse given his size, and now with a third back like Wright in the mix who’ll likely get a shot if Mostert gets hurt, Achane has close to no shot at being a workhorse this year - so going off as the RB7 is definitely steep. But, he still has league winning and week winning type of upside because of how efficient he’s been, even with a 50% snap share. He was the RB5 in points/game last year - but Raheem Mostert was the RB4 in fantasy points/game, and Mostert had a 45 point outing last year.
Given the fact that guys like Kyren Williams and Derrick Henry are going right after Achane in drafts right now - I think I might pass at this price, and one of the reasons for that is because I think I’ll be trying to get Mostert at least for the games he is healthy for. And hey, if he gets hurt or is washed, it is what it is at his discounted price because he still has Top-10 upside if he stays healthy. Among the 23 RBs with 200 or more carries last year, he was 3rd in yards after contact/att and 5th in missed tackles forced/att, and he had one of the highest rushing yards over expectation/att. So I’ll probably be aiming for him when I’m dipping into Miami’s backfield for fantasy this year.
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