When I look at the Steelers backfield this year, I just see a lot of success. They have a run-first offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith, they drastically improved their offensive line, and they have a couple of productive RBs… one of them being one of the most efficient in the NFL, and no, it’s not Najee Harris. Among qualifying RBs on a per carry basis, Jaylen Warren was #1 in yards after contact, #1 in missed tackles forced, and #3 in rushing yards over expectation, only behind Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane. Najee Harris had 100 more attempts than Warren did last year, and he was actually relatively solid efficiency wise. Nothing stood out, but he was’t bad. And with a better overall situation this year, this entire backfield gets lifted.
ADP wise between these two, it’s pretty close. Najee’s the RB20, Warren’s the RB25, and they’re being picked about 5 picks from each other. Here’s the thing about how he Arthur Smith handled Atlanta’s backfield last year - even though I believe Tyler Allgeier is a solid RB, the talent gap between him and Bijan Robinson was pretty large - mainly because Bijan is an outlier type of talent. The Steelers backfield doesn’t have that - and the more efficient RB is actually the backup in this case. So if Arthur Smith was willing to keep the touches in that backfield close - Bijan only had 28 more carries than Allgeier last year - what is he going to do in the Steelers backfield when the talent gap isn’t so big, and if anything, the backup in Pittsburgh has a bigger case to be on the field than Allgeier did.
Because of that, I prefer to take Warren at the cheaper price because there’s a decent chance that the touches are distributed a lot more evenly this year than last year. Not only that, but Warren was one of only 8 RBs last year to earn 70 targets - and among those RBs, he was 3rd in yards/route run. He also averaged more fantasy points/game than Najee did last year. If the touch gap decreases, I think going Warren over Najee at the slightly cheaper price will be the right decision.
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