If I had to choose a RB who has the best shot at becoming the overall fantasy RB1 in 2024, but has never finished as the fantasy RB1 before, I’m going with Breece Hall. I was a little worried going into last season given the fact that he was coming off the ACL injury, but man… it almost looked like he didn’t miss a beat. Like he wasn’t even coming off the injury.
He averaged almost 4.5 yards/carry behind an atrocious offensive line. Among the 23 RBs with 200 or more carries last year, Breece Hall was 2nd in yards after contact/attempt, 4th in missed tackles forced/attempt, 6th in rushing yards over expectation among RBs with over 90 carries. After an ACL tear? Seriously? Imagine how much more efficient he’s going to be behind a much improved offensive line, a year removed from the ACL injury, and the elephant in the room - with a FUNCTIONAL OFFENSE.
He did all that without Aaron Rodgers - the Jets offensive situation was brutal last year. Teams didn’t have to account for the pass game, and Breece still put up those numbers? He was still overall RB8 in fantasy points/game?
Now, defenses will have to account for the pass game… and speaking of the pass game, Aaron Rodgers loves to throw to his running backs - remember, Aaron Jones averaged more than 50 catches per season while he was the Packers primary RB with Rodgers, and Breece Hall is going to run way more routes than Jones did. And guess who was #1 in yards/route run among qualifying RBs last year - Breece Hall. Breece can easily be 2nd in targets behind Garrett Wilson.
A functional offense, let alone a good offense, can thrust a talented RB like Breece Hall from the RB8 in fantasy points/game all the way to the RB1 this year. I can totally see it happening.