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Writer's pictureZach Rizzuto

Zach's Early Underdog Draft Values


Baker Mayfield (QB21)

Last year’s QB10, Mayfield returns all of his top weapons including WR Mike Evans, who he connected with for 13 TDs last season. Even with a new offensive coordinator, Mayfield should have no trouble easily outperforming a low-QB2 ADP.


Will Levis (QB24)

Upgrades at wide receiver and the coaching staff give Levis the best supporting cast of his short career heading into year two. As the 24th QB off the board, there’s almost no risk in taking a swing at the big-armed Titans signal caller who flashed more than once in 2023.


Jonathon Brooks (RB24)

His new head coach is already raving about his ability to be used in the passing game, which will outshine any potential shortcomings in the snap share department. The ACL tear is not a concern for me at all and won’t be unless we hear otherwise between now and September. He’s got top-12 upside coming off the board in the eighth round.


Ezekiel Elliott (RB40)

Zeke returns to his old stomping grounds as a likely early down bruiser / goal line hammer. That role will serve him just fine on last year’s top scoring offense by total points scored. He even showed that he’s capable in the receiving game yet, and as the RB40, he could be the beneficiary of some special treatment from Dallas’ coaching staff.


A.J. Brown (WR7)

Brown was dominating as the overall WR1 before the bye in 2023, and his production fell off along with the entire Eagles offense in last year’s stunning collapse. I’m willing to bet he and Jalen Hurts return closer to what we saw earlier in 2023, and as the 10th overall pick in Underdog’s best ball ADP, I’d be thrilled to get him late in the first round.


Mike Evans (WR16)

The connection he had with Baker Mayfield was real, and the Buccaneers didn’t change much personnel-wise to suggest that Evans isn’t still viewed as a top flight receiver in not only Tampa Bay’s WR room, but also in the entire NFL. He led all receivers in TDs with 13, and as usual, is being underrated early on in drafts.


Marquise Brown (WR34)

The only Chiefs WR without external complications is easily the safest bet and highest upside selection at the same time. His price has gone up in recent weeks with news of Xavier Worthy’s hamstring flare up, but who wouldn’t take a shot on Patrick Mahomes’ potential WR1 at the back of the fifth round?


Diontae Johnson (WR44)

Johnson suffered from Kenny Pickett’s atrocious QB play in Pittsburgh, and the situation isn’t much better in Carolina. However, he’s still a target-earning WR in an offense spearheaded by the Buccaneers former OC in Dave Canales. We know who Johnson is, and the situation this year should be an improvement over his previous one.


Courtland Sutton (WR49)

Yes, Bo Nix is a rookie and we don’t know what his translation to the NFL will be like. But with Jerry Jeudy out the door, Sutton is primed to be Nix’s go-to-guy in a system that will allegedly play to his strengths and what he’s familiar with. It’s easy to be optimistic when Sutton is going later than Jameson Williams and Christian Watson, too.


Jake Ferguson (TE9)

Ferguson was one of seven tight ends last season to garner at least 100 targets (102) and was second in end zone targets among all TEs with nine. Dallas brought in no weapons of note and are primed to roll with Ferguson as their second option in the offense, and with a TE-friendly QB like Dak, Ferguson has easy top-5 upside at his TE9 price tag.

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