The season is getting closer, and time is running out to make your picks for Underdog’s season-long pick ‘ems! Here are two of Zach’s favorites:
Bijan Robinson OVER 1099.5 Rush Yards
One of the easiest picks for me to make. The Falcons are widely regarded as having one of the top run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, and they just drafted the most dynamic RB talent since Saquon Barkley at 8th overall. The track record for first round running backs drafted inside the top 25 picks since 2019 is fantastic – Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, and Saquon Barkley all ran for over 1100 yards in their rookie seasons. There’s an argument to be made for Bijan as the best talent of all of those guys I just mentioned, and he’s walking into arguably the best situation of any of them, as well.
Where there are questions at quarterback, there are often running backs with answers, and on a team with a great offensive line in a weak division, I’m slapping the Zach stamp of approval on Bijan going over 1100 rush yards. This one is as guaranteed as any pick on Underdog right now.
Dalton Schultz OVER 500.5 Receiving Yards
Yes, he has a rookie at quarterback, but have we heard a single negative thing about Stroud this entire offseason besides some bad test score? The Texans' offense is going to be much better this year with Stroud at the helm than it was last year with Davis Mills, and Dalton Schultz is the veteran security blanket that Stroud is going to use early and often. He’s had over 500 yards in each of the past three seasons in Dallas while competing with far better competition for targets in Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb, so carving out a role for himself in an offense devoid of weapons shouldn’t be an issue.
And for what it’s worth, Stroud has been compared multiple times to Schultz’s old QB, Dak Prescott – it’ll be a volume game for Schultz, but 500 yards is a low bar to clear for a guy who can realistically catch 60 passes this season. For context, if Schultz catches 60 passes in 2023, he’d have to average just over 8 yards a catch to crack 500 yards. 88 tight ends averaged 8.3 or more yards per reception in 2022, and Schultz himself has averaged at least 9.8 yards per reception in each of the past three seasons.