SELL RB Derrick Henry, TEN
Derrick Henry might not have necessarily hit the age cliff just yet, but the Titans offense being a dumpster fire and Tyjae Spears coming out and splitting snaps with Henry is just fast-tracking his approach to it. Fantasy Life’s utilization reports says that Spears has a 50% snap share for the season through six weeks and is eating up a ton of valuable work in the passing game: 49% route participation against Henry’s 32%; 13% target share vs. Henry’s 7%; 90% of long down and distance snaps to Henry’s 3%; and 86% of 2-minute snaps vs Henry’s 14%. That’s made Henry, whether we want to or like to admit it or not, a touchdown-dependent RB2 this year - and the problem isn’t that Henry is hitting a cliff, which would be out of his control, but instead it’s something predictable like a backfield by committee that’s killing him.
In games where Henry doesn’t score a touchdown, he’s averaging 8.4 points per game. The Titans are also 26th in scoring offense in the NFL, and that’s been with Ryan Tanehill at QB. Now he’s out with a high ankle sprain, and Tennessee is going to be relying on Malik Willis to command the offense. I’m all for a little optimism and giving the guy a chance, but the offense is not going to be good enough to make Henry a consistent fantasy producer (unless they completely bail on the passing game and return Derrick Henry to his 25 carry a game workload of 2022). That’s not going to happen, and Henry’s next two weeks include a bye this week and a tough matchup against a Falcons defense that’s allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position through six weeks.
If I can package up Henry and move him for a guy like Kenneth Walker, I’d take that deal all day long.
SELL QB Dak Prescott, DAL
We knew the matchup coming into the game was good, and Dak delivered with an overall QB1 finish that really doesn’t feel all that groundbreaking - 25 fantasy points feels a bit watered down to be the top scoring player at the position, don’t you think?
Anyway, there are a few things working against Dak here, and number one is the way he scored his points. He had 40 yards on the ground and a touchdown, which counts for 9 points of his 25 on the night. Dak has scored just one rushing touchdown in each of the past three seasons, and he’s rushed for 40 or more yards just twice in that same time span, so there’s reason to expect that rushing upside not to be there moving forward.
Then, there’s the fact that he’s only thrown for more than one touchdown in just one game this season – and there’s been no in between for Dallas in terms of how they’re playing. If they’re winning, they’re winning by a lot, and Dallas doesn’t have to throw (see: blowouts against the Giants and Patriots). But if they’re losing, it’s because the offense is getting dominated and his scoring upside remains low (see: 11 fantasy points per game combined against Arizona and San Francisco). And if you watched the game Monday night, Mike McCarthy is not a good playcaller right now. Dallas’ offense is still super inconsistent in the red zone where points are scored, and that’s going to hurt his ceiling moving forward.
There are some good matchups coming up, but they’re against quality competition, and Dallas hasn’t unleashed Dak Prescott yet this season. Sell on this performance and move for a guy like Brock Purdy.
BUY WR Brandon Aiyuk
He’s been pretty quiet these past two weeks - he’s averaging 11 points per game and has caught just four passes in each game. Granted, that’s come against two really good defenses in Dallas and Cleveland, but Aiyuk only had a quiet game against Dallas because the 49ers were in a ridiculously positive game script and the 49ers didn’t have to pass. That, plus the underwhelming effort even with Deebo off the field for part of the game this past week, could be enough to make his fantasy managers open to moving off of him.
Aiyuk has been everything you wanted him to be coming into the season and more as a target earner - 31% target share and 53% air yards share in his five games played is hilarious utilization - and he’s never had less than a 25% target share in a game this season. He’s also averaging 18 yards per reception courtesy of the Kyle Shanahan system, and he’s got a fantastic matchup this week against a Vikings squad allowing the 3rd most points to receivers.
Are you going to be able to get him cheap? Probably not. But the price is as low as it’s going to be this season, and picking him up after a loss is going to be a hell of a lot easier than after a matchup with Minnesota, because that 12.5 point per game average in his past four games is going to fly up on Monday night.