Tier 1: Givers of Positional Advantage
Josh Allen - He’s been the premier fantasy QB for the past three years, supplementing 35+ passing touchdowns annually with over 100 rushing attempts in each season. He would have remained in this tier anyway even if Stefon Diggs was his only weapon - but Dalton Kincaid could prove to be a massive No. 2 for Allen.
Jalen Hurts - An absolute cheat code on the ground, he’s scored 10+ touchdowns rushing in each of the past two years. He took the next step passing last year and enters 2023 with an even better supporting cast than 2022, headlined by D’Andre Swift.
Patrick Mahomes - Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL, and he’s the lone signal caller that can keep pace with the best rushing QBs via the pass. He’s an underrated runner, though, leading the league last year in touchdowns off scrambles with 4 – elevating him into the untouchable fantasy category.
Lamar Jackson - The Ravens executed a full revamp of his supporting cast, down to his OC. Zay Flowers, OBJ, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews make the best receiving corps Lamar has had to date, and Todd Monken will help bring the best out of the passing game to complement Lamar’s elite ability on the ground.
Tier 2: Givers of Positional Advantage… Sometimes
Justin Fields - Lamar Jackson lite. He can lead the league in QB rushing this season, but there’s almost no chance that he reaches the 4000+ yard mark he says he’s aiming for without a drastic increase in passing volume. That might not happen, but if he can get to 3000 yards, Fields will be in good shape to claim his first Top-5 fantasy finish of his career.
Justin Herbert - Kellen Moore coming over should make a world of difference for Herbert in 2023, who spent last year shamefully underutilizing his howitzer arm under since-fired OC Joe Lombardi. He still threw for over 4700 yards, but it took just under 700 attempts to do so. That number should come down a bit if the efficiency increases for Herbert, who has his best supporting cast to date with the addition of Quentin Johnston in the draft.
Joe Burrow - Burrow has a non-zero chance to finish as the fantasy QB1 if his weapons can stay healthy. His ability to compete with the rushing quarterbacks in fantasy production through the air is Mahomesian, and he offers a little upside on the ground as well. He’s the safest bet of any quarterback in this tier.
Trevor Lawrence - Trevor Lawrence was the QB7 from Week 12 on through the end of 2022, and the Jaguars have added a huge weapon in Calvin Ridley since then. The expectations are high, but they’re warranted seeing as the former 1st overall pick scored 30 total TDs last year and threw for over 4000 yards. That should be the baseline for Lawrence in 2023.
Tier 3: Elite Upside With Less Established Floors
Tua Tagovailoa - There’s a reasonable level of concern about Tua’s health heading into 2023 after he suffered three concussions last year, but when he was healthy, he was one of the most productive QBs in fantasy. Take out Week 4 when he left the game early with his first concussion, and the game in Week 16 where he started hot but threw 3 INTs after he was allowed to stay in the game with a concussion, and Tua averaged 21.3 points per game in 2022, which would have made him the QB5. That’s an elite ceiling that you can get relatively cheap in drafts.
Deshaun Watson - Watson could challenge for a top-3 finish, but it’s just a matter of him getting back to playing the way he did back in his Texans days. A full offseason program should help give him the best chance at doing that – as well as arguably the strongest supporting cast he’s had in his career. He’s looked good in camp so far, and if I had to bet on it, I’d say it’s more likely that he balls out this year than it is he falls flat and looks like he did at the end of 2022.
Anthony Richardson - He has all of the tools to be a high-end fantasy QB1. His rushing ability should buoy his production regardless of what his W:L ratio is in his rookie year, but it’s also hard to ignore his massive arm. He’s a rookie who will undoubtedly experience turbulence in his rookie season, but we’ve seen first year players navigate choppy waters and finish very high before (Cam Newton did so in 2011, as well as Justin Fields last year). Does anyone else think that Richardson can rush for just as many touchdowns as Fields last year, and throw for more yards? Because I do.
Geno Smith - His ADP is still being hurt by name value, even after his QB8 finish in points per game last year. It wouldn’t make sense to project a quarterback who played consistently well the entire year to suddenly not play well the next year, but the “flash in the pan” allegations remain because Geno’s rise came out of nowhere. He has arguably the best trio of WRs in the NFL and a deep RB room in the backfield – that’s everything he needs to finish as a top-6 QB once again.
Tier 4: The Safe Bets: High Floors, Top-10 Upside
Daniel Jones - He broke out by virtue of his rushing production taking a massive jump from what we had seen from him in the first three years of his career. Not only did he rush for the fifth-most yards among QBs in 2022 (703), but he also doubled his career high in rush attempts and more than tripled his single-season career high in touchdowns scored! The difference? Brian Daboll, who took the first step in molding Daniel Jones in the same vision as he did with Josh Allen in Buffalo. His rushing production is here to stay, which gives him a rock-solid floor week in and week out – but his passing production ultimately won’t reach a point where he’s challenging for a Top-5 finish in 2023.
Dak Prescott - He’s consistently been a high-QB2/low QB1 for the past two years – and that’s because of his rushing production almost completely falling out of his game. Despite that, his passing production has been among the league’s best, including him throwing the most touchdowns of any QB once he returned from injury last year. Take out the game in which he was injured and played uncharacteristically poorly in Week 1, as well, and Prescott’s points per game jumps to 18.9 - which would have made him the QB7 last year. His weapons have improved, and he’s one of the safest choices at the position.
Kirk Cousins - The most underrated fantasy QB in the league, Cousins is set to once again fly under the radar as a top performer in 2023. He has a new weapon in Jordan Addison to throw to, along with two other elite targets in Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. He’s the ultimate punt pick if you miss out on the early difference makers – his price as the QB13 off the board is extremely palatable given the top-10 upside he presents on a weekly and yearly basis.
Aaron Rodgers - A down year from Rodgers last year in Green Bay has his ADP way down in 2023, even with high expectations from the Jets. His 14.8 points per game (QB25) last year leaves a lot to be desired, but it’s hard not to project a significant bounce back from the former 4 time MVP with a much better set of weapons. Rodgers was consistently pedestrian in 2022 (1st in consistency rating among all NFL QBs last year), but Garrett Wilson should help fix that issue and add some boom back into Rodgers’ fantasy production in 2023.
Jared Goff - Goff looked like the 2021 version of himself to open 2022, but he turned back the clock in the back half of the year and played extremely efficient football the rest of the way. From Week 12 on, Goff was the QB7 in fantasy points per game, while throwing for a pristine 14 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in that span. The Lions still have an excellent offensive line, and they added two premier weapons in Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta to complement Amon-Ra St. Brown. It’s starting to feel like Goff’s days back in LA, when he was surrounded by talent and just had to play efficient football… He averaged a QB10 finish from 2017-2019.
Tier 4.5: The Russell Wilson Tier
Russell Wilson - Wilson has the upside to finish as a Top-8 QB in Denver, but last season showed us that the floor is pretty damn low if Sean Payton isn’t really the answer to what ailed them in 2022. Denver was home to the lowest-scoring offense in the league last year, making it difficult to project comfortably for the offense to suddenly turn around on a dime. But if Payton gets things back on track, Wilson could belong in tier 3. He did have two top-5 finishes to close last season, which would indicate that he’s not dead just yet.