SELL RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS
Did you know that Brian Robinson is currently the overall RB6 in total points scored this year? If it hasn’t felt like it, you’re right - that's a misleading stat. He’s actually the RB15 in points per game, and he’s had two outlier performances this season that are inflating his production to mask what’s been a pretty miserable fantasy season for him through ten weeks.
Take out Robinson’s game this week where he caught six passes for 119 yards and a touchdown and the game in Week 2 against the Broncos, and suddenly Robinson is only averaging 10.8 points per game as the RB33. But Zach, you’re cherrypicking his best games out of his game log. Well, I’ll ask you this: do those two games look like unpredictable flukes to you? Because they do to me.
Robinson had caught more than two passes in a game just once before last week. He was the Commanders’ lead receiver against the Seahawks. That doesn’t happen often at all, and his first big performance was one of three games where he saw more than 15 carries. The usage he’s gotten places him most realistically as a back-end RB2/high RB3. Does he have the upside for the type of performance he had last week? Yeah, obviously - it happened twice this season. But the majority of the time, you’re only getting 9 or 10 points a game from him.
And then you look long term at what his schedule the rest of the way looks like: the Commanders have the 6th-hardest remaining strength of fantasy schedule, including two dates with the Cowboys and matchups with the Rams, Niners, and Jets on tap. Sam Howell has also been on fire, so moving off of Robinson now could save you a lot of headache later – and Robinson still hasn’t had his bye yet!
BUY WR Puka Nacua, LAR
The nightmare is over guys: Matthew Stafford is back, Brett Rypien isn’t even on the team anymore, and Carson Wentz isn’t set to start for the first time in 2023. Puka Nacua has gone the past four weeks scoring in the single digits three times and hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 5, so he should be relatively available on the trade market coming off the Rams’ bye. And it’s not like Puka’s quiet games these past four weeks have been solely the product of Brett Rypien – well, ok, the past two have – but there’s precedent for a quiet game with Stafford under center. It happened in Week 6, so the price on Puka shouldn’t be out of reach.
Since Cooper Kupp’s return in Week 5, Puka Nacua has had a 30% target share and air yards share, coincidentally, but for obvious reasons I already talked about, the production hasn’t followed that utilization. Those are WR1 numbers, and with Stafford back in the lineup, he should be able to start coming through on that utilization starting this week. But what’s most interesting to me when it comes to buying Puka Nacua is his schedule in the fantasy playoffs: he gets the Commanders in Week 15, who are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to WRs this year, and then the Giants in Week 17, who are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs this year! Can’t ask for much better than that in your first playoff game and championship round.
He’s been quiet these past few weeks, but the Rams could come alive down the stretch with Stafford back under center – and especially if they’re vying for wild card positioning.